ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131753 
SPC MCD 131753 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-132000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana into southwest/west central
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 131753Z - 132000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue to initiate across
the region through the afternoon.  Some of these may be accompanied
by a risk for severe hail through mid afternoon, before the
potential for tornadoes increases closer to 3-4 PM CDT, when the
issuance of a watch currently appears most likely.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development, largely supported by
strengthening low-level warm advection above/to the cool side of a
northward advancing surface front, is now underway as far east as
the Monroe LA vicinity, where a 4-5 mb 2 hour surface pressure fall
maximum has spread within the last hour.  In the presence of
moderately large CAPE and strong cloud-bearing layer shear, this
activity may continue to pose a severe hail risk through mid
afternoon.

Gradually, as the front progresses northward, it appears that a
warming and moistening boundary layer (including surface dew points
increasing to near 70f) may become supportive of intensifying
boundary-layer based storm development closer to the 21-22Z time. 
Models suggest that this will also coincide with enlarging low-level
hodographs beneath an 850 mb jet strengthening to 50+ kt, which is
expected to support increasing potential for tornadoes, a few of
which may become strong.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON   33139141 33538979 32798943 32468946 31789007 31649080
            31679147 32579188 33139141 

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