ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 131211 
SPC MCD 131211 
TXZ000-131415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...portions of west-central into central Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 49...

Valid 131211Z - 131415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of Tornado Watch
#49.  A replacement watch may eventually be needed pending
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing MCS currently near Sutton/Val Verde
counties in Texas continues to mature and develop farther southward
than most models/CAMS suggest.  Additionally, a mature supercell
continues across Uvalde County despite progressively moving toward
increased convective inhibition east of the area.  Tornado Watch 49
currently has an expiration time of 14Z, although the current
progression of the MCS suggests convection will persist within the
watch through at least 16Z - assuming the MCS can maintain its
current intensity.

Assuming ongoing convection does persist, instability/shear profiles
support a continued threat of all modes of severe - especially near
the warm frontal zone where low-level shear will be maximized and
storms can ingest near-surface-based parcels.  With these
considerations in mind, WW 49 may need to be replaced with a new
Tornado Watch in the 13-14Z timeframe -  with the new watch possibly
covering the Austin/San Antonio areas and points slightly east.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   31010037 31229989 31309902 31389828 31339743 30849667
            30199648 29599689 29059796 28959942 28970026 29120090
            29460110 29990109 30630075 31010037 

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