ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122045 
SPC MCD 122045 
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-122245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0309
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 122045Z - 122245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may be accompanied by
some risk for severe hail late this afternoon, with a small
increasingly organized thunderstorm cluster possibly evolving by
early evening, while spreading northeastward across the lower
Mississippi Valley.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is underway to the
immediate cool side of a stalling surface frontal zone.  Activity is
likely being supported by lift associated with weak low-level warm
advection, and inflow of seasonably moist air with CAPE up to 1500
J/kg.  

Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, strong deep layer
shear beneath 50-60+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow may support
rotating updrafts initially capable of supporting severe severe
hail, before forcing for ascent perhaps contributes to the upscale
growth of a small organizing convective cluster.  It might not be
out of the question that this could eventually be accompanied by
some risk for a few strong surface gusts as activity tends to
develop northeastward along the frontal zone through early evening.

..Kerr/Grams.. 04/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31039362 31839196 32119096 32129021 31368971 30749124
            30179246 30119372 31039362 

NNNN