ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 090058 
SPC MCD 090058 
ALZ000-MSZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Central and eastern Mississippi into western
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 090058Z - 090300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may pose a risk for marginally severe damaging wind
gusts and hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Given the
isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in multicellular convection has recently been
observed within the past two hours across central into eastern
portions of Mississippi, within close proximity of a surface low,
where low-level convergence is maximized. 100-150 J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE
is in place across eastern Mississippi into far western Alabama,
fostering an environment supportive of vigorous convection.

Nonetheless, deep-layer and low-level shear are relatively mediocre
across the warm sector, and with a nocturnally cooling/stabilizing
boundary layer, updraft intensity is expected to wane with time. The
more vigorous updrafts may promote an isolated marginally severe
hail threat. A few damaging wind gusts are also possible. A few of
the storms have also exhibited transient supercell characteristics,
with brief periods of mid to low-level rotation noted. Given the
propensity of cells to merge (effectively weakening organized
rotation via cell interactions) along with a stabilizing boundary
layer, any tornado threat that remains will likely be brief in
nature. 

As the remaining severe threat is expected to be short lived and
isolated in nature, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   31968809 31708862 31638915 31919001 32149008 32679007
            33818934 34158843 34038783 33428755 32718775 31968809 

NNNN