ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 040133 
SPC MCD 040133 
OKZ000-TXZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Wed Apr 03 2019

Areas affected...Eastern TX Panhandle...Western/Central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36...

Valid 040133Z - 040300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for hail will persist for the next hour or so. A
downstream watch across western and central OK is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercell currently moving into Tillman and
Kiowa Counties in southwest OK continues to produce large hail (i.e.
1.75" per a recent report in Jackson County). Downstream air mass is
less unstable, largely a result of cooler temperatures and less
low-level moisture, but the storm remains quite strong and
well-organized. the well-organized nature of this storm suggests it
will likely be able to persist within this less stable environment
for next hour or two while gradually decreasing in strength.

Farther northwest, increasing low to mid-level flow and resulting
warm-air advection has fostered the development of elevated
thunderstorms across the eastern TX Panhandle. The air mass here is
unstable enough to support updrafts strong enough to produce hail,
some of which may be above 1" in diameter. These storms will likely
persist for the next several hours as they move eastward into
western OK, aided by both a strengthening low-level jet and
large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave moving into the
region. 

Currently, severe thunderstorm coverage is expected to be limited
after Severe Thunderstorm Watch 36 expires at 03Z and downstream
watch is not anticipated. However, convective trends will be
monitored closely.

..Mosier.. 04/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   36260063 36530031 36829962 36759863 36249797 34999792
            34339834 33839917 33869993 34090034 34820096 35710103
            36260063 

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