ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302045 
SPC MCD 302045 
ALZ000-MSZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019

Areas affected...MS...Western AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302045Z - 302245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Area is being monitored for thunderstorm development. A
conditional risk of hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado will
exist with any sustained cells.

DISCUSSION...At 2030Z, convection is gradually deepening from
central/eastern MS into western AL. Widespread shallow convection
was noted across this area earlier in the day, with a temperature
inversion rooted around 700 mb limiting the depth of convective
elements. However, this inversion should slowly erode over time,
eventually allowing for at least isolated thunderstorm development
between 4 PM - 6 PM CDT, as the region is glanced by a well defined
midlevel shortwave passing to the north. 

If any deep convection can become sustained, effective shear of
40-50 kts, long hodographs, and steep midlevel lapse rates above the
capping inversion will support the potential for rotating updrafts,
along with a corresponding threat of large hail, locally damaging
wind, and perhaps a tornado. 

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the coverage and intensity of
prefrontal thunderstorm development across this region, but given
the conditional threat of a supercell or two, watch issuance is
possible within the next couple of hours. Later this evening,
additional thunderstorm development will be possible as the cold
front moves in, with some continued potential for hail and wind.

..Dean/Grams.. 03/30/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   31509073 34468856 34588775 34168729 33338748 32658817
            32248867 31968918 31598995 31509073 

NNNN