ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 220929 SPC MCD 220929 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-221330- Mesoscale Discussion 0223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019 Areas affected...Parts of the Catskills and Capital District of New York into the mountains of southern/eastern Vermont...northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 220929Z - 221330Z SUMMARY...A narrow band of heavy snow, including rates of 1-2+ inches per hour, is expected to continue to develop across the region and persist through the 10 am to Noon EDT time frame. DISCUSSION...A fairly deep, occluded surface cyclone has migrated off the New Jersey coast, and is forecast to continue eastward/northeastward, to the south of Long Island, through daybreak, before a secondary low begins to form across the Cape Cod vicinity by late morning. As this occurs, models indicate the continued evolution of a lower/mid tropospheric deformation zone across the Catskills and Capital District of New York, into the mountains of northern New Hampshire and northwestern Maine, through the 14-16Z time frame. Associated frontogenetic forcing is forecast to support strengthening lift in the mixed-phase layer favorable for large dendritic ice crystal growth. This may already be underway in a corridor from the Catskills into the Green Mountains. Although low-level thermodynamic profiles across this region still appear mostly above freezing, diabatic cooling, perhaps coupled with weak low-level cold advection as near-surface winds turn to northerly, probably will support a transition to heavy snow by daybreak. In the presence of fairly moist conditions (precipitable water .5 to .6+ inches), the Rapid Refresh, among other model output, indicates heavy snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour are possible, and may persist for at least a 3-4 hour period at any one location, while developing northeastward into the mountains of northwestern Maine by late morning. ..Kerr.. 03/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41937484 42867430 43777295 44657174 45307054 45846996 45306928 44347065 43237236 42407337 41987408 41537463 41937484 NNNN