ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 122217 
SPC MCD 122217 
TXZ000-NMZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0517 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

Areas affected...Southeast NM

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

Valid 122217Z - 130015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

SUMMARY...An intensifying line of thunderstorms will pose a risk for
damaging winds across parts of southeast NM and far West TX this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a line of intense convection
extending across eastern Otero and extreme western Chaves counties
of southeast NM.  These storms have formed along a very strong
Pacific cold front, where 2-hour surface pressure falls of 5+ mb are
noted.  The convection has begun to accelerate eastward, with
individual components now moving at over 45 knots to the northeast. 
Strong forcing along the front, steepening low-level lapse rates
ahead of the storms, and favorable low-level winds shown on local
VAD and forecast sounding data support an increasing risk of
damaging winds along the line.  The main limiting factor will be the
residual cool layer near the surface which may reduce the strength
of wind gusts at the ground.  However, These storms will also be
moving off the Sacramento mountains into a more moist boundary-layer
which may help to offset the near-ground stable layer.

..Hart.. 03/12/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31840524 32430534 33360555 33800408 33310374 31890365
            30970539 31840524 

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