ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 130421 
SPC MCD 130421 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-130715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CST Tue Feb 12 2019

Areas affected...Much of central into northern Maine and adjacent
portions of northern New Hampshire

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 130421Z - 130715Z

SUMMARY...Heavy hourly snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour appear
likely to continue to develop across much of central into northern
Maine through 1-4 AM EST.

DISCUSSION...Moderate to heavy snow appears in the process of
developing across parts of northern New England in response to
increasing lift within entirely sub-freezing and saturating
thermodynamic profiles.  Ascent is largely being supported by
strengthening warm advection, downstream of significant cyclone
which may gradually begin to occlude as it crosses the lower Great
Lakes region.  However, models suggest that large-scale ascent may
become enhanced during the next few hours, aided by lower/mid
tropospheric frontogenetic forcing, including through the
mixed-phase layer supportive of large dendritic ice crystal growth.

Into and through the 06-09Z time frame, this appears generally
forecast to become focused across central into northern Maine (and
adjacent portions of northern New Hampshire), where guidance
suggests that sustained hourly snow rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour are possible.  Forecast soundings also indicate a period of
steepening mid-level lapse rates across this region, which could
become supportive of convection with at least shorter-lived heavier
bursts of snowfall.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   46746908 45606666 44536741 44256927 44527128 45057202
            45787148 46747050 46746908 

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