ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 071123 
SPC MCD 071123 
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 AM CST Thu Feb 07 2019

Areas affected...northern and western AR...far southeast
OK...northeast TX...southeast MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4...

Valid 071123Z - 071230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4 continues.

SUMMARY...Localized areas of strong to severe gusts are possible
with the strongest thunderstorm cores or more organized linear
segments.  An additional severe thunderstorm watch, potentially
located over AR into southeast MO is uncertain, but increasingly
less likely based on overall thunderstorm organizational trends.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows several broken linear segments from
near the greater DFW area northeast through southeast OK into
western AR.  Early morning VAD data shows very strong southwesterly
flow increasing with height.  One of the main limiting factors for a
more organized/widespread severe risk is likely the lack of stronger
buoyancy over the OK/AR portion of the discussion area.  Farther
southwest over northeast TX, the northeast fringe of the EML as
sampled by the 06z Fort Worth raob, suggests updraft intensity will
probably remain strongest over northeast TX before storms encounter
weaker mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy farther east as sampled by the
06z Shreveport and Little Rocks raobs.  The expectation for this
morning is a continued widely spaced risk for localized severe
gusts.  Marginally severe hail potential will probably lessen with
time over TX as the aforementioned EML plume is overturned and as
storms become increasingly displaced farther east in a weaker CAPE
environment.

..Smith.. 02/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...
OUN...

LAT...LON   35969354 37579012 37218959 36648974 35839152 35289255
            33039539 32669618 32899661 33629606 35969354 

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