MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF VA/NC/SC INTO NE GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 191844Z - 192015Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SPREAD E/SE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT
   REGION OF VA/NC/SC...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLD SEVERE WIND/HAIL
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE WATCH NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   VIS IMAGERY/VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA DEPICTS TSTM CLUSTERS EVOLVING
   E/SE INVOF OF HIGHER TERRAIN IN LEE OF APPALACHIANS...WITH
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT CORRIDOR. WITH DOWNSTREAM
   AIRMASS HAVING ALREADY WARMED IN THE LOWER 80S...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RUC
   POINT SOUNDINGS/LOCAL VADS SUGGEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RANGING FROM
   AROUND 30 KTS ACROSS VA...DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KTS INTO NC/SC. IN
   ADDITION TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT GIVEN INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. EXPECTED LIMITED ORGANIZATION/MARGINAL
   NATURE OF THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
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