MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/CNTRL AND ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234...
   
   VALID 090053Z - 090300Z
   
   NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS...PERHAPS
   PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...BY SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION OF WW 234.
   
   
   FORCING ON TAIL END OF IMPULSE SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND SOUTH DAKOTA
   MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
   NORTH OF MANHATTAN INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF WICHITA.  ACTIVITY IS
   OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT/DRY LINE...WHERE
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
   J/KG.  EAST OF THE TOPEKA/CHANUTE AREAS...BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
   COOL AND STABLE.  WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING EVEN IN AREAS TO THE
   WEST...CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED...BASED ABOVE
   DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.
   
   MODELS SUGGEST VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH BASE OF NORTHERN
   PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION ALONG/ EAST OF
   INTERSTATE 35...SOUTH OF WICHITA INTO NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME.  THIS IS WHERE STRONGEST
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED...AND RISK OF LARGE
   HAIL MAY CONTINUE ON EASTERN EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
   
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