MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0311
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 PM CST SAT MAR 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 192238Z - 192345Z
   
   STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SCNTRL
   TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH COVERING
   PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE UPPER TX GULF COAST WILL BE NEEDED
   SHORTLY.
   
   STORM ARE INCREASING IN STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND AHEAD OF
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM WEST TX. ACTIVITY IS MOST
   ORGANIZED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SMALL SCALE SURFACE LOW OVER
   WILLIAMSON COUNTY ATTM WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS FORMING ALONG
   BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS MILAM...ROBERTSON...AND LEON COUNTIES.
   ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SURFACE
   TROUGH OVER GONZALES COUNTY. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN WEAKLY CAPPED
   AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL
   BOUNDARIES...AND THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
   WAVE TROUGH. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...35-40KT MID LEVEL WLY
   WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR FOR A FEW
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. WIND
   THREAT MAY INCREASE IF ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND
   SPREADS EAST TO THE TX GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   29709433 28949642 28429760 28029875 28359876 29089864
   29769743 29929694 30979674 31719413 30879372