MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CST SAT MAR 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 052258Z - 060100Z
   
   CLUSTERS/LINE OF STORMS FROM NEAR GILA BEND TO NEAR HAYDEN WILL
   CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL NEXT
   FEW HOURS AS THEY DEVELOP NWD. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION
   AND AREA OF THE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING NWD THROUGH
   ERN PERIPHERY OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE
   HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL AZ. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY EXTENDS
   FROM NEAR GILA BEND EWD TO NEAR HAYDEN WHERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
   DEVELOPING ALONG A NWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW
   IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION WILL ENHANCE STORM INFLOW AND LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GUSTS FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 20C
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS MOVING NWD AT AROUND 15 KT AND MAY BEGIN TO
   AFFECT THE PHOENIX AREA BY 00Z.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/05/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
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