MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0823 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TEXAS
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 280223Z - 280330Z
   
   MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
   MIDLAND AREA PROBABLY IS OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
   WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
   THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS IS ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF EARLIER
   DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE
   SUPPORTING CAPE AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG.  SURFACE BASED-INVERSION LAYER
   IS ALREADY FORMING...AND MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE HAIL APPROACHING
   OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED
   CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.  
   
   AS STEERING FLOW ADVECTS ACTIVITY INTO COOLER LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
   WITH WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NORTH/NORTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO...
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...DIMINISHING TRENDS ARE EXPECTED.  AS
   NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING PROGRESSES...RISK OF DAMAGING
   SURFACE WIND GUSTS MAY ALREADY BE WANING.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/28/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
   
   32090144 32490116 32610078 31719890 31089900 31029986
   31500072