MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 PM CST SUN FEB 20 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK INTO NRN AND CNTRL AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...
   
   VALID 210522Z - 210715Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS/SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER
   NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. OTHER STORMS NOW OVER N
   CNTRL OK MAY STRENGTHEN/SPREAD E INTO NE OK AND NRN AR LATER
   TONIGHT.  WW 19 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NE OK
   AND NE AR.
   
   A FEW SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NRN AND CNTRL AR THROUGH
   EARLY MONDAY IN ZONE OF WEAK CONFLUENCE/INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX
   JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO NE AR
   DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.  FARTHER W...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER
   N CNTRL OK TO CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE STATE...WITH SOME
   INTENSIFICATION AND/OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AS ASSOCIATED
   VORT MAX/UVV FIELD ENCOUNTERS SURFACE FRONT NOW BECOMING STNRY OVER
   REGION.
   
   GIVEN 50+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /1000
   J/KG OF MLCAPE/...THE ISOLATED AR STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
   POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL.  MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY FARTHER W MAY POSE
   A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AS STORM GUST FRONTS CONTINUE TO
   MERGE AND ACCELERATE EWD.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 02/21/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   36709522 36689618 36299639 35729640 35169597 34659491
   34469348 34629115 34889031 35868974 36539007 36669345