MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2225
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA THROUGH SC
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 830...
   
   VALID 161931Z - 162130Z
   
   STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY ACROSS SC...BUT POTENTIAL STILL
   EXISTS FOR STORMS TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH
   THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   AN E-W BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS CNTRL SC. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WARM
   MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWWD...AND BREAKS
   IN THE CLOUDS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
   FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS...STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
   INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM
   THE AREA OF GENERAL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN. GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR
   THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS
   MANAGE TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DIAL.. 09/16/2004
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
   
   33527924 32418058 32078263 33008275 34348259 34938196
   34467928