MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CT...RI...MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 150625Z - 150900Z
   
   SLIGHT INCREASE IN THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOW TOP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND
   INCLUDING CT...RI AND MA BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
   MARGINAL...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION IS OBSERVED.
   
   AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO SEWD
   TO A DEEPENING LOW OVER SERN NY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD TO OFF THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE DEEPENING LOW WITH A WARM FRONT SEWD
   INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. A FORCED LINE OF STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT IS
   MOVING RAPIDLY EWD OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE. STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
   JET MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC IS RESULTING LARGE PRESSURE
   FALLS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEPENING LOW FROM NJ NEWD INTO
   NEW ENGLAND. STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE IN TRIPLE POINT REGION
   ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING LOW WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH EARLY
   MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LOW TOPPED LINE OF
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN LIMITING
   FACTOR IS OF COURSE THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET AOB 1 KM AND SELY ONSHORE FLOW
   MAINTAINING A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...IT MAY BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGH PRECIPITATION DRAG TO TRANSPORT THIS MOMENTUM DOWN
   TO THE SURFACE IF A LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP
   FARTHER NWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 10/15/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...
   
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