MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN FL PNHDL...SERN AL...NWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 221447Z - 221715Z
   
   TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO PARTS OF SERN
   AL...AS WELL WRN/NRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE AREAS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
   A SLGT RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK AT 1630Z.
   
   RADAR REFLECTIVITY WAS INCREASING IN AN ARC OF TSTMS DEVELOPING
   ENEWD AROUND 30KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AL ATTM. THIS
   ACTIVITY...INCREASING AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH
   AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   INSTABILITY AXIS INDICATED ACROSS SERN AL. DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
   COVER ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS
   /SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S/ AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
   ASCENT FOCUSED ACROSS AL/GA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SUGGESTS
   THAT TSTM UPDRAFTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE VIGOROUS. 40-50KT
   SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 25-30KT LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND FAVORABLE
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE UPDRAFT SOURCE REGION...COULD SUPPORT
   DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO. A SLGT RISK WILL LIKELY
   BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK...AND STORM TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH IS NECESSARY LATER TODAY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/22/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   31158511 30508622 30568687 31908723 32758674 33578588
   35008478 33918406