MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2351
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0329 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT...FAR WRN ND...AND NWRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 082029Z - 082300Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 22-01Z ACROSS FAR ERN
   PORTIONS OF MT...FAR WRN ND...AND NWRN SD. A MARGINAL RISK OF
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CONVECTION IN THIS REGION LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   AT 20Z...LARGE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH
   EMBEDDED VORT MAX ACROSS NRN ID WILL CONTINUE ENEWD DURING THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. A 996MB SURFACE LOW NEAR GGW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SSEWD EXTENDING PREFRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH MLS TO 30 E GCC. AHEAD OF
   THIS TROUGH...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR
   90...CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.
   CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND SHIFT LINE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SHIFTS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   SPREADING EWD ACROSS MT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TONIGHT ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. BELT OF STRONGER WINDS REMAINS
   OVER THE MTNS OF NWRN WY/WRN MT THIS EVENING WITH MAIN FRONTAL ZONE.
   SSWLY 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND THIS
   EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
   LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG CONVERGENCE AXIS. THE POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE AIDED BY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND DCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...RESULTING IN A FEW MICROBURSTS ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ..BANACOS.. 09/08/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...GGW...BYZ...
   
   44680352 45210406 46470515 47450617 48670649 48940485
   48590317 45970210 45010200