MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0732 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...CNTRL AND SRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 819...
   
   VALID 010032Z - 010200Z
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTION OF
   WW 819. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL KS WHICH CONVECTION IS
   MOVING SWD ACROSS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL IN THIS AREA WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT. THIS WILL CONTINUE A
   THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS WW 819 WITH SUPERCELLS
   POSSIBLE. TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 40 DEGREES WILL ENHANCE A
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL KS WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WILL MAKE
   LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...GLD...
   
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