MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0850 AM CDT TUE JUL 08 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA...NRN MO...WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 081350Z - 081545Z
   
   PORTIONS OF SRN IA INTO NRN MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE 
   WW THIS MORNING.
   
   13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL NEB ENEWD TO JUST N OF OMA...INTO IA NEAR DSM AND EWD TO 20
   N MLI. DESPITE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEPICTED OVER THIS
   REGION PER VIS IMAGERY...POCKETS OF HEATING ARE RESULTING IN
   INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...
   WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE 1000-2000 J/KG.  
   
   OMA RADAR SHOWS AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG THE NEB/IA BORDER AND
   GENERALLY NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
   BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF A 40 KT SWLY
   LLJ.  AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ELEVATED
   STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
   
   WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN MCV FROM A DECREASING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS
   LOCATED OVER NERN KS.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   SHOULD INCREASE OVER SRN IA/NRN MO AS THIS MCV MOVES ENEWD. 
   THUS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
   WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 07/08/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
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