MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0857 PM CDT SUN JUL 06 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NEB...WRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   659...
   
   VALID 070157Z - 070500Z
   
   SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING OVER PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND
   WRN IA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND.  A FEW TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE AS WELL WHILE TSTMS ARE RELATIVELY DISCRETE AND NEARLY
   SFC-BASED.  SUBSEQUENTLY WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME BETTER
   ORGANIZED WITH MCS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY AND MOVING ESEWD TOWARD
   CENTRAL IA. WW LIKELY. 
   
   TWO PRIMARY REGIMES RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASED RISK NEXT FEW HOURS
   ARE...
   1. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING...ASCENT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR
   ACROSS MO VALLEY
   2. CLUSTER OF TSTMS NOW OVER SWRN NEB -- IN WW 659 -- POSSIBLY
   PROPAGATING NEWD TOWARD ERN NEB.  
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TRIPLE-POINT LOW SERN SD...COLD FRONT SWWD TOWARD
   SWRN NEB...WARM FRONT ESEWD PAST SUX/DSM/DVN AREAS.  WARM FRONT
   SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING WHILE ISALLOBARIC
   FORCING INCREASES OVER W-CENTRAL/NWRN IA...JUST AHEAD OF SFC LOW. 
   25-35 KT LLJ CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN REGIONAL PROFILER DATA SHOULD
   INCREASE TO 35-45 KT -- SUPPLYING RICHLY MOIST LOW LEVEL INFLOW. 
   15-18 DEG C 850 MB DEW POINTS AND LOW-MID 70S SFC DEW POINTS WILL BE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  OAX RAOB --
   MODIFIED TO REMOVE SINGULAR DEW POINT ERROR AROUND 960 MB -- YIELDS
   MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX MUCAPES
   4000-5000 J/KG.  WITH SUCH LARGE INSTABILITY...AND APPROXIMATELY 50
   KT 0-6 KM SHEARS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION
   POSSIBLE.  MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INVOF WRN PORTION KS/NEB
   BORDER MAY MOVE NEWD INTO RICHER MOISTURE OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN
   NEB...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND POSSIBLE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/07/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
   
   40660058 42789832 42879514 42329237 41109255 40759477
   40849677 40079839 39970047