MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0649 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 192349Z - 200145Z
   
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   ECENTRAL/SERN NM IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. LIMITED DURATION/AREA OF
   SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE SRN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY/NRN
   GUADALUPE COUNTY LINE. CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE RIVER
   VALLEY APPEARS TO HAVE RE-ORGANIZED IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES AS IT
   ENCOUNTERED AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS FROM CLINES CORNERS SWD TO NRN LINCOLN COUNTY. SFC
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MESOLOW WAS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES OVER SWRN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY. THIS MESOLOW SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
   EWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO GUADALUPE AND DE BACA COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS. AN AXIS OF CLEARING HAS PROVIDED FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY
   WITH UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION.LOW LEVEL
   SELY INFLOW ALONG WITH 25-30 KT MID LEVEL WINDS PER AREAL
   VWPS/PROFILERS WILL PROVIDE FOR SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ECENTRAL
   AND SERN NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/19/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...
   
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