MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS AND SRN THIRD OF MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID 101207Z - 101400Z
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS SRN MO.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF SRN MO NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST
ETA-KF INDICATES ELEVATED CAPE JUST ABOVE 3000 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES /NEAR 8C/KM/ MOVING IN FROM THE WEST INTERACTING WITH WRN EDGE
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST N OF JLN - SGF LINE. LATEST
TRENDS ALSO SHOW INSTABILITY ADVECTION INTO SWRN MO INDICATING THAT
HIGHER THETA-E VALUES COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SRN MO WILL BE LOCATION OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
..MCCARTHY.. 06/10/2003
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
37279549 38009540 38329458 38229305 38059225 37999146
37829039 37328970 36599000 36159081 36309304 36369479
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