MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0873
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TN/WRN NC/NWRN SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 090753Z - 090930Z
   
   TSTM COMPLEX OVER FAR NERN TN WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE
   HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IS MOVES SEWD AT
   AROUND 30KTS.
   
   STRONG STORM /PERIODICALLY EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS/
   EMBEDDED IN SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CARTER COUNTY IN FAR NERN
   TN HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A 66MPH WIND GUST AT THE TRI-CITIES
   REGIONAL AIRPORT. IT APPEARS THAT FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN KY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF SWLY LLJ JET IS SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY AS
   IT MOVES SEWD.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS JUST MOVED S
   OF SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY ALONG THE
   VA/NC STATE LINE NWWD INTO ERN KY NEAR JKL. GIVEN THE STORM MOTION
   RELATIVELY TO THE LLJ ORIENTATION...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW REMAINS
   QUITE STRONG /35-45KTS/ WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THE TSTMS
   AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN NC. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS S OF THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN NC INTO NWRN SC INDICATE A SLIGHTLY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...IT
   APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/LARGE HAIL WILL
   PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE
   AREA.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/09/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...
   
   35408371 36048360 36508342 36588272 36558185 36258075
   35598047 34658051 34138106 33978213 34458350 34798384