MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0258
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CST SUN MAR 16 2003
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 170209Z - 170515Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM PORTIONS OF
   NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TX
   NEAR MAF IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
   ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL COOLING.  00Z SOUNDING FROM MAF INDICATED A
   VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE...BUT NOTICEABLE
   MID LEVEL BACKING AROUND 6KM...WITH H5 TEMPS TO NEAR -20 TO THE
   WEST AT EPZ.  MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE IS PRESENT JUST DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.  WITH
   LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NEAR SJT INTO WRN OK...IT APPEARS
   CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS NEWD.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WEAK ORGANIZATION OF
   MULTI-CELL ELEVATED CLUSTERS.  HAIL MAY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/17/2003
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...AMA...LUB...MAF...
   
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