Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri May 3 14:46:03 UTC 2024 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Fri May 3 14:46:03 UTC 2024 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031445
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0945 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast
New Mexico. Morning surface observations and 12 UTC soundings from
ABQ and EPZ show very dry conditions at/near the surface with RH
values generally in the teens to low 20s across parts of far
southwest TX and south-central NM. This air mass should spread
northeast behind an eastward migrating dryline this afternoon. Weak
mid and upper-level winds will limit the overall magnitude of the
fire weather potential, but ensemble guidance shows reasonably high
confidence of 15-20 mph winds co-located with the driest conditions.
Furthermore, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs generally reside in
the 80-90th percentile across this region after several days of
limited rainfall, which should support the fire weather concern.
Elevated conditions are also expected further north into
south-central CO, but will be more localized and driven by
terrain-induced winds.
..Moore.. 05/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through northern Mexico
today and eject into West Texas by early tomorrow morning. A weak
surface trough is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as
a result. Portions of the Southwest will experience dry and breezy
conditions for period during the afternoon. Given the short duration
of these conditions, only locally elevated fire weather concerns are
expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...