Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed May 18 16:49:03 UTC 2022 ( | )
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 181647 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The Elevated area over parts of central/northwest TX was expanded slightly northwestward toward the Red River. While sustained surface winds should not be as strong as areas farther south, 10-15 percent minimum RH and breezy southwesterly becoming northwesterly surface winds will result in locally elevated conditions amid an ongoing wildfire over the area. Across portions of the Northeast, sustained west-northwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts will develop amid 20-30 percent minimum RH this afternoon. While fuels across the region generally remain unsupportive of wildfire-spread owing to recent rainfall, any pockets of dry fuels that overlap the dry/breezy conditions could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Over parts of southern WY, 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty westerly surface winds will support elevated conditions this afternoon, though fuels are generally not receptive to wildfire-spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 05/18/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022/ ...Synopsis... Flow will be weak across the Southwest today. A weak mid-level shortwave trough will cross the southern High Plains and lead to weak cyclogenesis across northwest Texas. This will result in a strengthening low-level jet east of the surface low. Some deep mixing is expected east of the dryline across central Texas beneath this low-level jet. This will bring some of this stronger flow to the surface in a region with 20 to 25 percent relative humidity. ERC values are 90 to 95th percentile across this region and visible satellite showed several smoke plumes this afternoon, indicating fuels are sufficiently dry for burning. Dry conditions are expected in the Southeast (20 to 25 percent relative humidity). However, winds are expected to stay light across the region which should preclude any significant fire weather concerns. In addition, thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central Rockies this afternoon. These thunderstorms will occur in a low PWAT environment (0.6 to 0.75 inches) and in a region with very dry fuels. Therefore, storms should be dry with the potential for new lightning induced fire starts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...