Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Wed May 18 16:49:03 UTC 2022 (20220518 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20220518 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181647

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

   Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

   The Elevated area over parts of central/northwest TX was expanded
   slightly northwestward toward the Red River. While sustained surface
   winds should not be as strong as areas farther south, 10-15 percent
   minimum RH and breezy southwesterly becoming northwesterly surface
   winds will result in locally elevated conditions amid an ongoing
   wildfire over the area. 

   Across portions of the Northeast, sustained west-northwesterly
   surface winds of 15-20 mph with locally higher gusts will develop
   amid 20-30 percent minimum RH this afternoon. While fuels across the
   region generally remain unsupportive of wildfire-spread owing to
   recent rainfall, any pockets of dry fuels that overlap the
   dry/breezy conditions could result in locally elevated fire-weather
   conditions. 

   Over parts of southern WY, 10-15 percent RH and breezy/gusty
   westerly surface winds will support elevated conditions this
   afternoon, though fuels are generally not receptive to
   wildfire-spread.

   For additional details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 05/18/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   Flow will be weak across the Southwest today. A weak mid-level
   shortwave trough will cross the southern High Plains and lead to
   weak cyclogenesis across northwest Texas. This will result in a
   strengthening low-level jet east of the surface low. Some deep
   mixing is expected east of the dryline across central Texas beneath
   this low-level jet. This will bring some of this stronger flow to
   the surface in a region with 20 to 25 percent relative humidity. ERC
   values are 90 to 95th percentile across this region and visible
   satellite showed several smoke plumes this afternoon, indicating
   fuels are sufficiently dry for burning. 

   Dry conditions are expected in the Southeast (20 to 25 percent
   relative humidity). However, winds are expected to stay light across
   the region which should preclude any significant fire weather
   concerns.

   In addition, thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
   central Rockies this afternoon. These thunderstorms will occur in a
   low PWAT environment (0.6 to 0.75 inches) and in a region with very
   dry fuels. Therefore, storms should be dry with the potential for
   new lightning induced fire starts.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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