Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Apr 16 18:13:02 UTC 2018 (20180416 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180416 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 213,534 4,132,406 Albuquerque, NM...Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Midland, TX...
Critical 106,064 2,374,256 El Paso, TX...Colorado Springs, CO...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161812

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0112 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT
   SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO THE
   SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected across a large
   portion of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on
   Tuesday. Very dry fuels and boundary-layer conditions, combined with
   strong winds, will significantly increase the potential for rapid
   fire spread and extreme behavior through much of the day, especially
   from eastern New Mexico, through the Panhandles, and into southwest
   Kansas and western Oklahoma. Moreover, a cold front passage and
   associated wind shift (from west/southwest to northwest) during the
   afternoon/evening will complicate firefighting efforts, as the
   approximate southeastern flank of any initial large fires may become
   rather expansive fire fronts later in the day.

   The ongoing highlighted areas remain generally unchanged. The
   extreme and critical areas were expanded slightly eastward across
   parts of Texas and Oklahoma, primarily to account for recent
   guidance and the very dry nature of fuels.

   ..Picca.. 04/16/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   ***Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are likely on
   Tuesday***

   A progressive mid-level trough will migrate through the
   Intermountain West early on D2/Tue and reach the Rockies by mid-day.
   At the base of this trough, a well-timed speed max will eject across
   the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains in conjunction with peak
   heating hours.  At the surface, a lee cyclone and trailing trough
   will deepen from central Kansas southward toward the Big Bend area
   of Texas, with very warm/dry airmass extending from the
   trough/dryline westward through the Lower Colorado River Valley. 
   This synoptic pattern will result in widespread areas of higher-end
   fire weather conditions, with the potential for large, fast-moving,
   and life-threatening fire activity.

   ...Southern Rockies eastward into the southern/central Plains...
   Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing very early in the
   forecast period (12-15Z across central New Mexico and vicinity) in
   response to sustained 15-25 mph westerly surface flow and very poor
   overnight recovery.  This area will expand dramatically throughout
   the day as insolation/vertical mixing and a favorable surface
   pressure gradient result in widespread areas of 30+ mph
   west-southwesterly surface flow - especially within the extremely
   critical delineation.  Gusts in these areas may exceed 60 mph -
   especially in central/northern New Mexico into south-central
   Colorado beneath the mid-level speed max.  Furthermore, the
   antecedent airmass will be very dry across the region, with RH
   values falling to as low as 3-10% in point forecast soundings within
   the extremely critical area as temperatures rise into the 80s and
   90s F (warmest nearer the dryline/surface trough).  Surrounding the
   extremely critical delineation, somewhat weaker surface winds and
   higher RH values will exist during peak heating hours.  Some fire
   weather threat will likely exist well into the evening and overnight
   given poor recovery and continued gusty surface winds.  This threat
   should also translate eastward into central Oklahoma/Kansas through
   06Z as drier air advects eastward behind the progressive surface low
   and trailing trough.  Lastly, surface winds should gradually veer to
   northwesterly through the evening, potentially complicating any
   ongoing fire suppression efforts.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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