Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Thu Mar 22 19:20:03 UTC 2018 ( | )

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221918

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0218 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST CO AND
   SOUTHWEST KS...WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR
   NORTHEAST NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...Southern/Central High Plains...

   Portions of for northeast NM, extreme southeast CO/southwest KS and
   western portions of the OK/TX Panhandles have been upgraded to
   extremely critical. Latest high-resolution guidance has trended a
   bit drier with stronger winds across this region. RH values around
   9-13 percent are expected as temperatures warm into the 80s. Deep
   boundary layer mixing will allow for downward transport of higher
   midlevel winds. As the lee cyclone deepens and tracks east into
   western KS, sustained west/southwest surface winds will increase to
   25-35 mph with higher gusts. These conditions, combined with
   critically dry fuels, will lead to extreme fire behavior should
   ignition occur. 

   Surrounding the extremely critical area, the critical and elevated
   areas have been adjusted based on latest model trends. The main
   change to the critical area has been an extension to the south
   across the TX Big Bend region and to the west across parts of
   southeast NM. Some uncertainty still exists on the northern and
   eastern extent of the fire weather areas and is dependent on the
   position of the surface low and dryline. 

   For more details, see previous discussion below.

   ..Leitman.. 03/22/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper ridge over the Plains Friday morning will be eroded as a
   shortwave trough moves eastward from the Southwest to the southern
   Plains through the day. 50-75 kt west-southwesterly mid-level winds
   associated with this shortwave trough will overspread the
   southern/central High Plains Friday afternoon. At the surface, a low
   should develop east-southeastward from eastern CO to central KS by
   Friday evening. A dryline extending southward from this low is
   forecast to mix eastward, likely reaching the vicinity of the TX/OK
   border by peak afternoon heating. A trailing Pacific cold front
   attendant to the surface low should sweep southeastward across the
   southern/central High Plains Friday evening/night.

   ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
   Plains...
   Strong/gusty west-southwesterly winds are expected to develop behind
   the eastward-mixing dryline across parts of the central and southern
   High Plains Friday morning/afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph
   appear likely across this region, with the strongest winds expected
   beneath the core of a mid-level jet moving over eastern NM and the
   TX/OK Panhandles. Higher gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible.
   An already dry low-level airmass will be present behind the dryline,
   and downslope warming/drying of this airmass coupled with diurnal
   heating will easily support RH values becoming lowered into the
   10-15% range across parts of eastern NM/southeastern CO into
   southwestern KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, west TX, and western OK. With
   dry to very dry fuels present, a critical delineation remains across
   these areas.

   Some eastward expansion has been made to the critical area based off
   the forecast position of the dryline late Friday afternoon. High-end
   critical conditions may occur across parts of eastern NM into the
   TX/OK Panhandles where sustained winds exceed 30 mph and RH values
   approach 10%. Elevated conditions will likely occur across parts of
   the Southwest and a slightly larger portion of the southern/central
   High Plains, with RH values of 15-25% and/or slightly weaker
   sustained winds precluding an even larger critical area at this
   time.

   ...Portions of the FL Peninsula...
   A dry airmass will persist over much of the FL Peninsula on Day
   2/Friday. With strong diurnal heating expected, RH values should
   fall into the 20-35% range for a majority of this area. However,
   wind speeds are forecast to be generally weak (less than 10 mph),
   which precludes the inclusion of an elevated area at this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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