Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Mar 18 15:33:02 UTC 2018 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Mar 18 15:33:02 UTC 2018 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181532
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1032 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018
Valid 181700Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Minor adjustments have been made to the critical and elevated areas
mainly across eastern portions of the OK/TX Panhandles. Current
cloudiness should mostly move out of the region by around 17-18z,
allowing for stronger heating and mixing of the boundary layer.
However, guidance suggests thunderstorms will develop near the
dryline from southwest KS into parts of the OK/TX Panhandle by
22-23z (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for severe weather details).
The critical area has been adjusted to be in line with the expected
position of the dryline by mid-to-late this afternoon. An elevated
area remains east of the dryline owing to strong winds and favorable
fuel conditions, despite RH values not expected to fall below
roughly 20-30 percent across the eastern OK/TX panhandles into far
western OK.
Further west across eastern NM and western TX, a large area of
critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected
to develop in the next few hours. Deep boundary layer mixing will
allow for very strong surface winds as an intense midlevel jet
streak of 80-90 kt overspreads the region. RH values should fall
into the upper single digits to 10 percent across the extremely
critical area, with values 10-15 percent elsewhere in the critical.
For more details, see previous discussion below.
..Leitman.. 03/18/2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018/
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move eastward from the Southwest to the
southern High Plains through this evening, with a belt of very
strong (70-100+ kt) mid-level flow overspreading eastern NM into
west TX and the TX/OK Panhandles by late this afternoon. Large-scale
lift preceding this shortwave trough will promote the deepening of a
surface low over southeastern CO today. A Pacific cold front
associated with the shortwave trough will sweep eastward across the
southern High Plains through the day, likely reaching into
southeastern KS and far western OK into western north TX by late
this evening. Preceding this front, a dryline should extend
southward from the surface low across the southern High Plains, and
an eventual merging of the front/dryline should occur across the
eastern TX/OK Panhandles by late this afternoon.
...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains...
As the surface pressure gradient strengthens and enhanced mid-level
winds reach the surface with mixing of the boundary layer,
strong/gusty southwesterly to westerly winds of 20-40 mph will
develop today across parts of the southern/central High Plains.
Higher gusts to 50-60 mph may also occur. RH values will likely fall
into the 7-15% range across much of this region due to downslope
warming/drying processes even though temperatures will be reduced
behind the cold front passage. Critical conditions appear most
likely from eastern NM into west TX, much of the TX/OK Panhandles,
far southeastern CO, and extreme southwestern KS. Elevated
conditions should occur across a broader portion of the
southern/central High Plains, with low-level moisture return across
much of OK and central TX generally limiting the eastward extent of
substantial fire-weather concerns.
High-end critical to extremely critical conditions should be
realized across parts of far eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and
west TX for a few hours this afternoon beneath the core of the
mid-level jet. Here, sustained winds of 30-40 mph now appear likely,
with RH values around 7-10% through peak diurnal heating. Confidence
in these meteorological conditions has increased enough to introduce
an extremely critical area across this region where the strongest
winds are expected this afternoon. Very dry fuels and ongoing
drought across this region will allow for extreme rates of fire
spread given the forecast strength of the winds.
Short-term guidance is now in better agreement regarding how far
east elevated/critical conditions will develop across southwestern
KS and the eastern TX/OK Panhandles along a composite dryline/cold
front early this evening. Have therefore made minor changes to the
elevated and critical delineations across these areas. Elevated to
critical conditions may continue through the evening and early
overnight hours across the southern High Plains as winds remain
strong/gusty behind the cold front passage.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...