Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Tue Apr 5 08:38:03 UTC 2016 ( | )

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050833

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 AM CDT TUE APR 05 2016

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY...SPECIFICALLY NERN NM...THE
   TX AND OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK...S-CNTRL KS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL/ERN NM...W
   TX...WRN/CNTRL OK...SRN/CNTRL KS...SERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL SD...FAR SRN
   ND...FAR NRN NEB...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY-MORNING MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONE AND SWWD-TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING PARTS
   OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL GREAT BASIN. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
   AMPLIFY ALONG ITS SEWD TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND VICINITY.
   THIS WILL OCCUR AS A MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM TRACKS SEWD
   FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHILE INTERACTING
   WITH A SUBTROPICAL STREAM FARTHER S...AND THE VIGOROUS CYCLONE
   TRACKS SEWD ACROSS THE N-CNTRL CONUS. IN RESPONSE TO THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...AN ARCHING SFC BOUNDARY /LEE TROUGH AND FRONT HYBRID/
   WILL CONNECT SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING ESEWD OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS
   TO A STRENGTHENING LEE LOW OVER SWRN KS/SERN CO AND VICINITY. A
   SURGE OF RELATIVELY COLDER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SWD/SEWD OVER
   THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS...RESULTING IN ACCELERATION OF THE
   BOUNDARY AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT.

   IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OF SSWLY TO WSWLY FLOW IN THE
   850-700-MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE FROM NERN NEW MEXICO TO
   THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION...WITH 700-MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
   AROUND 40-60 MPH IN THIS CORRIDOR. LARGE-SCALE DOWNSLOPE
   TRAJECTORIES WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR ANALYZED OVER THE SWRN
   CONUS/SRN ROCKIES AND VICINITY /I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS PRESENTLY IN THE
   SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS/ SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY. MEANWHILE...ONLY TEMPERED
   MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR OVER THE LOW PLAINS...WITH A DIFFUSE
   DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED APPROXIMATELY FROM CNTRL TX THROUGH
   CNTRL OK TO A TRIPLE POINT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IN
   NERN/CNTRL KS. NEAR AND W OF THE DRYLINE...AND S OF THE
   BOUNDARY...VERY DEEP MIXING WILL EXTEND INTO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT
   TO GREATLY INCREASE FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   THE ERN BOUNDS OF THE CNTRL/SRN-PLAINS CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL AREAS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED EWD/NEWD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
   TO ACCOUNT FOR A PLETHORA OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGESTING UPSTREAM
   TROPOSPHERIC DRYNESS IN THE RETURN-FLOW PATTERN. WITH MONDAY-EVENING
   OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA INDICATING PW ONLY AROUND ONE-HALF
   INCH ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS...AND GIVEN THE
   ANTICIPATED WARM SFC TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DEEP VERTICAL
   MIXING...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY LOW FOR THESE
   ADJUSTMENTS AMIDST VERY STRONG WINDS AND DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS TO THE GREAT PLAINS...
   -- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS
   TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
   VICINITY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE SPREAD --

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...
   SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS LOCALLY REACHING
   AROUND 50 MPH ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 4-13
   PERCENT -- LOWEST READINGS ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO NERN 
   NM -- AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F. VERY DRY
   FUELS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN VERY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYERS EXTENDING 10-14 KFT ABOVE GROUND...THERE WILL BE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR VERY RAPID NEWD/EWD SPREAD OF FIRES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NW TO N DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY/COLD SURGE SPREADS
   SWD/SEWD. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DIRECT ANY
   ONGOING FIRES. THE MOST DANGEROUS FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ARE
   ANTICIPATED NEAR AN ARC FROM CANADIAN TX TO GAGE OK...TO WOODWARD
   OK...TO BETWEEN MEDICINE LODGE AND PRATT KS.

   ...SURROUNDING CRITICAL AREA...
   WLY/WNWLY SFC WINDS /WRN AREAS/ TO SSWLY SFC WINDS /ERN AREAS/ OF
   20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH MINIMUM RH
   FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS /WEST/ TO AROUND 20 PERCENT /EAST/
   AMIDST DRY TO VERY DRY FUELS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S /WEST/ TO THE 80S /EAST/. WINDS WILL
   SHIFT TO NWLY TO NLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY/FRONT DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

   ...CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND VICINITY...
   A SEPARATE REGIME OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL EXIST
   BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...AIDED BY THE INFLUENCE OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL
   WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM RELATED TO THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CYCLONE.
   SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...COUPLED WITH WARMING/DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNSLOPE
   TRAJECTORIES...WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES AROUND 15-20 PERCENT THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN SD...FAR SRN ND...AND FAR NRN
   NEB. COMBINING WITH THESE RH VALUES...SUSTAINED WLY /BECOMING NWLY/
   WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS WILL EXIST AMIDST DRY FUELS. 

   ...SURROUNDING ELEVATED AREA...
   ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
   TO EXIST WITHIN A BROAD REGION FROM PARTS OF ERN/NRN AZ AND SERN UT
   EWD TO THE GREAT PLAINS. HOWEVER...WITHIN THE ELEVATED AREA...THERE
   WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND DRIEST SFC
   CONDITIONS TO RESIDE TO THE SW OF STRONGER WINDS CONCENTRATED FROM
   PARTS OF N-CNTRL TX THROUGH ERN OK AND FARTHER N ACROSS OTHER PARTS
   OF THE CNTRL/NRN GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE AS
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS FARTHER E OF THE DIFFUSE
   DRYLINE...AND COOLER AIR OVERSPREADS LOCATIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE
   BOUNDARY.

   ...DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
   AS INDICATED IN THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...A RISK FOR TSTMS WILL
   OVERLAP WITH SOME OF THE REGION OUTLINED WITH DAY-1 FIRE-WEATHER
   HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT...AT
   ANY GIVEN LOCATION...TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AFTER SFC
   COOLING...WEAKENING VERTICAL MIXING...AND INCREASING RH COMMENCE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH EITHER /1/ NOCTURNAL COOLING AND/OR /2/ COLD AIR
   ADVECTION FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. WHILE SOME ISOLATED DRY-TSTM
   POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND
   VICINITY...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH POTENTIAL IS PRESENTLY TOO LIMITED FOR
   DRY-THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS.

   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SC AND FAR SRN NC...
   WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION -- E.G. PW AROUND 0.5
   INCH PER MONDAY-EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND GPS DATA -- DEEPENING
   VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT MINIMUM RH AROUND 20-30
   PERCENT. COMBINING WITH THESE RH VALUES AND DRY FUELS...NLY SFC
   WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WILL EXIST. THE LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   PRECLUDES CRITICAL DESIGNATION.

   ..COHEN.. 04/05/2016

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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