Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Mar 22 16:02:03 UTC 2016 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue Mar 22 16:02:03 UTC 2016 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221557
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AREAS SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL RISK...FROM EASTERN AZ TO WESTERN MO...
...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW
NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURRING /AS OF 15Z/ ACROSS PARTS
OF NERN NM...SERN CO...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...WHERE SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE APPROACHING 20 MPH. A DELAYED RESPONSE IN STRONG
WINDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN AZ AND SRN NM...WITH THE ONSET OF
DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IN WIND SPEEDS FROM 17-20Z...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
EVENTUALLY APPROACHING 30 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON.
A PLUME OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF CO/NM AND THE
SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND MAY RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...VERY DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING AMIDST A DRY AIR MASS /OBSERVED PW VALUES OF 0.15-0.3 INCH
PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/ WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD WIDESPREAD
SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES...ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30
MPH...TO SUPPORT EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM FAR
SERN AZ AND SRN NM NEWD INTO THE PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING ELEVATED
AND CRITICAL RISK AREAS...INCLUDING A SLIGHT EWD/SWD EXPANSION OF
THE CRITICAL RISK OVER W-CNTRL TX AND WRN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL TRENDS.
...PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..ROGERS.. 03/22/2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0350 AM CDT TUE MAR 22 2016/
...SYNOPSIS...
AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN TURN...
WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MS/OH VALLEYS...FAVORING ZONAL/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
...SIGNIFICANT FIRE-WX EVENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
PLAINS WILL REMAIN STRONG / STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY. MOREOVER...A
BELT OF 700-MB WINDS AROUND 40-50 KTS WILL STRETCH FROM ERN AZ ALL
THE WAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
WILL CREATE BREEZY/STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. FURTHERMORE...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE
MAINTAINED...SUCH THAT DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING AND DIURNAL MIXING
WILL FAVOR WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS AND RH VALUES BELOW 15-25 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE LOWEST OF THESE VALUES /I.E. LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT/ WILL EXIST IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST AZ
NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF CO/KS. WITHIN THIS ZONE...SUSTAINED WINDS
OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AND THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL
COMBINE WITH DRY FUELS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE-WX CONDITIONS...WHERE VERY RAPID FIRE SPREAD/EXTREME BEHAVIOR
WILL BE POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SUCH CONDITIONS HAS INCREASED ENOUGH
THAT THE EXTREME AREA IS EXPANDED NORTH/EAST INTO SE CO...SW
KS...AND W OK...UPON COLLABORATION WITH AFFECTED OFFICES.
ADDITIONALLY...THE EXTREME IS EXPANDED SOUTH TOWARDS THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE VERY WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL.
THE SURROUNDING CRITICAL AREA IS MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE
CHANGE...PRIMARILY A SLIGHT EASTWARD EXPANSION TO THE MO RIVER.
MOREOVER...THE ELEVATED AREA IS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO CNTRL
IL...WHERE ROBUST S/SWLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES TO
INCREASE THE FIRE-WX THREAT HERE AS WELL.
...PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...A MODESTLY TIGHTENED SFC GRADIENT WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH SOMEWHAT ENHANCED LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW TO PRODUCE BREEZY
SWLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH TODAY. THE RECENT INTRUSION OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF HAS LEFT ONLY MEAGER MOISTURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION /E.G. 00Z RAOBS SAMPLING PW AROUND 0.2-0.3
INCHES/. DIURNAL MIXING WITHIN THIS AIR MASS WILL ENCOURAGE RH
VALUES BELOW 25-30 PERCENT. A RECENT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AND ONGOING DRYING OF FINE FUELS HAS LEFT MUCH OF THE REGION
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE IGNITION/SPREAD. AS SUCH...THE ONGOING ELEVATED
AREA IS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF TN...KY..WV...AND PARTS OF SRN
OH AND WRN WV.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...