Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Feb 18 09:23:02 UTC 2016 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Feb 18 09:23:02 UTC 2016 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 180919
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CST THU FEB 18 2016
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO
WESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
--- WIDESPREAD CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY ---
EARLY THIS MORNING...MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP CYCLONE
NEARING THE WRN CONUS COAST...WITH ATTENDANT STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
DEVOLVE INTO AN OPEN-WAVE PERTURBATION AS IT TRACKS INLAND/EWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM
WILL EXTEND E OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...SUPPORTING LARGE-SCALE AND
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS. AS A
RESULT...STRONG LEE SFC TROUGHING WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...YIELDING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS. A CORE OF 700-MB WLY WINDS OF 50-60 MPH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND E OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND VICINITY...WITH
DOWNSTREAM VERTICAL MIXING EXPECTED TO EXTEND TO NEAR OR ABOVE THIS
PRESSURE LEVEL EWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS AND NWRN OK.
THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FOSTER WIDESPREAD DOWNSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH RELATED WARMING/DRYING ACROSS
THE HIGHLIGHTED FIRE-WEATHER AREAS. MUCH-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...WITH NEAR-RECORD/RECORD-EXCEEDING READINGS
ANTICIPATED IN SOME LOCATIONS. GPS DATA ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES
AND VICINITY INDICATE PW AOB ONE-QUARTER INCH...CHARACTERISTIC OF
VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM. THIS FORECAST
CONTINUES TO RELY HEAVILY ON OBSERVATIONAL DATA/ANALYSIS...ALONG
WITH RAP MODEL OUTPUT THAT IMPLIES SFC WARMING/MIXING AT THE HIGH
END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS ACKNOWLEDGES AN UNDERFORECAST
BIAS WITH RESPECT TO SFC TEMPERATURES/VERTICAL MIXING AMONGST AN
ABUNDANCE OF OTHER NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE /DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE/ WITH THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF LARGER-SCALE DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
RECENT COMPARISONS OF OBSERVED TO MODEL SFC TEMPERATURES/RH AT PEAK
HEATING REVEAL THE EFFECTS OF THESE BIASES.
...PORTIONS OF THE SW DESERTS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT
PLAINS TO PARTS OF MO AND AR...
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...
SUSTAINED SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS OF 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING
45-55 MPH -- LOCALLY STRONGER -- ARE FORECAST TO COINCIDE WITH RH
VALUES FROM 4 TO 10 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
AREA /EXCEPT FROM 8 TO 13 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS
AND NWRN OK OUTSIDE OF THE OK PANHANDLE/. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SFC
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT DEEP
VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE CORE OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS...WITH
THE TOP OF MIXED LAYERS EXTENDING TO NEAR OR PERHAPS ABOVE THE
700-MB LEVEL IN MANY INSTANCES. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY FINE
FUELS ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO A DEARTH OF RECENT PRECIPITATION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL EXIST. THE
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IMPLIES THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING FARTHER N
ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CO...AND FARTHER N/NE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KS
THAN PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED...WARRANTING EXPANSION OF THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL AREA IN THESE AREAS.
...SURROUNDING CRITICAL AREA -- HIGH PLAINS AND WEST...
SUSTAINED SWLY TO WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL COMBINE WITH RH AROUND 5-15 PERCENT TO SUPPORT THE CRITICAL
DESIGNATION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND
80S SUPPORTING DEEP VERTICAL MIXING INTO ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT...
PERIPHERAL TO THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS. THE LATEST
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT THESE
CONDITIONS WILL OVERLIE AREAS OF DRY FUELS FARTHER W TOWARD THE CO
FRONT RANGE AND W ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN NM...WARRANTING
EXPANSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN THESE LOCATIONS. FOR PORTIONS OF
CNTRL NM...THE CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER RISK WILL BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY AOB 7000 FT...AS AREAS OF LESS-FAVORABLE FUELS
FOR FIRE SPREAD EXIST AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
...SURROUNDING CRITICAL AREA -- ELSEWHERE /I.E. PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/ERN KS SWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN OK INTO WRN N TX AND EWD TO WRN
MO AND NW AR/...
SLY TO SSWLY SFC WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING TO AROUND
40-50 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT E OF THE LEE TROUGH. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND
80S...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER/MIDDLE
30S. RELATING CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS/PW IMAGERY TO FORECAST
TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST THAT A PLUME OF ONLY MODEST RETURN
MOISTURE WILL EXTEND NWD ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
PREVENT RH VALUES FROM FALLING TO EXACT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFFSETS DRYING RELATED TO VERTICAL MIXING.
HOWEVER...THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
LIMITED...OWING TO AN OVERALL LOW SUPPLY OF SOURCE-REGION MOISTURE
PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE
ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY FINE FUELS...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTH OF
THE WINDS/GUSTS...THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL WARMING...AND THE
EXPECTATION FOR APPRECIABLE RH REDUCTION ALL WARRANT EWD EXTENSION
OF THE CRITICAL AREA INTO WRN MO AND NWRN AR.
...SURROUNDING ELEVATED AREA...
ELEVATED TO BORDERLINE-CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED OVERLAP OF CRITICALLY LOW
RH AND STRONG WIND IS TOO LIMITED FOR CRITICAL DESIGNATION.
..COHEN.. 02/18/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...