Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Apr 8 16:53:02 UTC 2015 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Apr 8 16:53:02 UTC 2015 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 081652
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015
VALID 081700Z - 091200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA THAT INCLUDE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
UT...NORTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...A LARGE PART OF NM...PORTIONS
OF EASTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO...SOUTHWEST KS...AND WESTERN OK INTO
WESTERN TX...
...UPGRADE TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL DESIGNATION FOR PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES...AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT SWLY SFC WINDS OF 30-35 MPH WILL
COMBINE WITH RH VALUES FROM 5 TO 9 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE 80S TO AROUND 90F AMIDST VERY DRY FUELS
ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA.
THE MORNING AMARILLO OBSERVED SOUNDING AND RECENT AMARILLO VWP DATA
SAMPLED 30-45 MPH OF SWLY TO WSWLY FLOW THROUGH A LARGE DEPTH OF THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL
WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS IS CROSSING
PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND VICINITY. WITH THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING SIMILAR FLOW LINGERING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...STRENGTHENING VERTICAL MIXING WILL SUPPORT
VERY STRONG SFC WINDS AS MIXED-LAYER HEIGHTS REACH AROUND 10-11 KFT
ABOVE GROUND. ASCENT PRECEDING THE CYCLONE COUPLED WITH APPRECIABLE
ROCKIES-RANGE-ORTHOGONAL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER
PARTS OF E-CNTRL/SERN CO TO SUBSTANTIALLY ENHANCE THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THESE FACTORS BREED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF
30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING AROUND 40-45 MPH ACROSS THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL AREA...AS AFFIRMED BY RECENT SHORT-RANGE MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS.
MEANWHILE...DRY TROPOSPHERIC AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH GPS
IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING PW VALUES AROUND 0.30-0.45 INCH.
DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-INDUCED WARMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
FURTHER ENCOURAGE DIURNAL RH REDUCTIONS...ESPECIALLY WHILE THE BACK
EDGE OF NE/SW-ELONGATED CIRRUS-CLOUD BANDS CONTINUES SHIFTING E OF
THE AREA AND STRONG INSOLATION OCCURS AREA-WIDE IN THEIR WAKE. AS A
RESULT...AND BASED UPON RECENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFICATIONS
TO THE MORNING AMARILLO OBSERVED SOUNDING...RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL TO 5-9 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE 80S.
REGARDING FUELS...PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW NORMAL SUPPORTING VERY DRY FINE FUELS. SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS COVER MANY LOCATIONS...FURTHER PROVIDING
SUBSTANTIATION FOR THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY FUELS ACROSS THE AREA.
GIVEN ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS...AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA
HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH AREA WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
...CHANGES TO THE BOUNDS OF THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
AREAS...
THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREAS WERE EXPANDED WWD
ACROSS PARTS OF S-CNTRL CO AND VICINITY TO INCLUDE THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY IN CRITICAL DESIGNATION. STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
ENCOURAGE WARMING/DRYING WITH MINIMUM RH AROUND 12-14 PERCENT AMIDST
DRY FUELS. THESE WIND AND RH VALUES ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN A REGIME OF STRONG DEEP SWLY FLOW AND DEEP
DRY AIR.
...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BROADER REGION FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND SHORT-RANGE MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE
NECESSARY...AND BOUNDS OF THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS THAT
SURROUND THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA ARE UNCHANGED BEYOND THOSE
CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
..COHEN.. 04/08/2015
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT WED APR 08 2015/
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS
THE PLAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS TO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND A SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
FROM SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHWEST TX WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...FOUR CORNERS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST
UT...NORTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHEAST AZ...MUCH OF NM...SOUTHEAST
CO...FAR SOUTHWEST KS...AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CRITICAL AREA
FROM UT/AZ INTO WESTERN NM AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION BY 21-00Z. RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT ARE STILL EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT AROUND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH /LOCALLY HIGHER/. FURTHER EAST FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN NM...SOUTHEAST CO INTO WESTERN OK AND PARTS OF W
TX...RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM AROUND 80 TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BEHIND THE DRYLINE. RH
VALUES FROM 5-10 PERCENT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING TO AROUND 12 KFT WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF
STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS /NEAR 40-50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER/. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH. AS A RESULT...SOME HIGH-END CRITICAL/LOCALLY EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST FROM SOUTHERN UT/SOUTHWEST CO TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IN THE ELEVATED AREA...RH VALUES WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING
FACTOR...EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL CO WHERE WIND
SPEEDS MAY BE LIGHTER BUT RH VALUES STILL VERY LOW. ONCE AGAIN...THE
EXACT EASTERN BOUND OF THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS WILL DEPEND
ON HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE MIXES. OVERNIGHT...A PACIFIC COOL FRONT
WILL CATCH UP TO THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 06-12Z AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST EAST THE ROCKIES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO WESTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST TX. RH RECOVERY WILL REMAIN
POOR...BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...