Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sun May 11 16:10:04 UTC 2014 ( | )

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111609

   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN HALF OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND A PORTION OF THE OK PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ / SERN HALF OF NM / TX S
   PLAINS AND PANHANDLE / SWRN KS / SERN CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...

   ...AZ EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   ONLY MINOR PERIPHERAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING CRITICAL AND
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK AREAS. OBSERVATIONS FROM 16Z SHOW CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN TX
   PANHANDLE...WITH STRONG S-SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH BEING OBSERVED. A
   DRYLINE WILL QUICKLY MIX EWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
   STALLING NEAR THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK BORDER. CRITICAL TO
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TO THE W OF THE
   DRYLINE...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH
   POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ...SRN CA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN NV...
   THE FORECAST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS PRIMARILY OVER THE
   COASTAL RANGES/FOOTHILLS AND INLAND VALLEYS OF SRN CA IS ON TRACK.
   16Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND SURROUNDING AREAS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
   EARLY MON MORNING. WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL
   LEAD TO THE ONSET OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS BY 18Z.

   ..ROGERS.. 05/11/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0234 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE
   CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A DRYLINE
   WILL EXTEND SWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER SWRN KS AND A
   COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
   OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS.  ON THE BACKSIDE
   OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA AND THE CO RIVER VALLEY...STRONG NLY TO
   NELY WINDS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.  TERRAIN-FAVORED LOCALES OVER SRN CA SUSCEPTIBLE
   TO OFFSHORE WIND EPISODES WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS
   AND HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

   ...AZ EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A BROAD BELT OF 50+ KT H5 FLOW ARCING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION BY LATE MORNING. 
   VERY STRONG 0.5-2 KM AGL FLOW FIELDS /H85-H7/ WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MIDDAY AND LEAD TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   AREA WILL APPROACH 35 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH.  THE LOW-LEVEL
   THERMAL AXIS WILL PROTRUDE NNEWD FROM THE PERMIAN BASE INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE.  VERY STEEP LOWER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
   MINIMUM RH IN THE 5-10 PERCENT RANGE FROM PORTIONS OF SWRN KS SWWD
   INTO FAR WEST TX.  SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS OVER WRN NM VIA A
   PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ACT TO TEMPER THE MAGNITUDE OF RH /GENERALLY
   IN THE 10-16 PERCENT RANGE/ BUT STRONG WINDS /15-30 MPH/ WILL FAVOR
   ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE UPPER RIO
   GRANDE RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD INTO THE SRN HALF OF AZ.

   ...SRN CA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN NV...
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
   THE CO RIVER VALLEY AND THE MOJAVE DESERT WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
   WAKE OF THE FRONT.  STRONG NLY TO NELY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
   MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SRN CA ASSOCIATED
   WITH STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE FLOW COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH.  EARLY
   MORNING OBSERVATIONS OVER SRN CA SHOW LOCALIZED STRONG SUSTAINED
   WINDS BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN TERRAIN-FAVORED PASSES/CANYONS.  MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SRN CA SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE
   AFTERNOON BUT INTENSIFYING TONIGHT.  SUSTAINED NELY/S 20-30 MPH WITH
   GUSTS 35-55 MPH ARE PROBABLE OCCURRING WITH MIN RH IN THE 5-15
   PERCENT RANGE.  ELEVATED TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
   PROBABLE OVER THE INTERIOR DESERTS PER MODEL SUITE.

   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

      

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