Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed May 7 16:52:04 UTC 2014 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed May 7 16:52:04 UTC 2014 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071651
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014
VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NE NM...SE
CO...PARTS OF WRN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NW OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...SE CO
INTO WRN KS/OK/TX AND PARTS OF S-CENTRAL NEB....
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL...
CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS. OVERALL...PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH ANOTHER VERY WINDY/DRY/HOT DAY OVER THE OUTLOOKED AREAS.
...PARTS OF NE NM...SE CO...PARTS OF WRN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES
AND FAR NW OK...
MAIN ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCLUDE MORE OF SERN CO IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
AREA WITH STRONGER WINDS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS ALONG WITH VERY DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS. ALSO WENT JUST A LITTLE FARTHER EWD INTO CNTRL
KS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. THESE EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE
SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THAT HAVE SEEN WILDFIRES ERUPT IN
THE AFTERNOON.
...EXTREME SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...SE CO INTO WRN KS/OK/TX AND PARTS OF
S-CENTRAL NEB....
ALSO EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED AREAS INTO MORE OF SERN CO
FOR HIGHER WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. ALSO WENT A LITTLE FARTHER
TO THE EAST ON THE EASTERN EDGE FROM SE NE...ERN KS INTO NCNTRL OK
FOR EXPECTED LOWER HUMIDITY.
THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OK AND SRN KS SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS LIKELY FORMING ON THE DRYLINE THIS
AFTERNOON /SEE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL/. BY EVENING...HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT
QUICKLY BACK TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE OK/TX BORDER WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MAY PRODUCE SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS FOR
KS/OK...INTO WRN N TX.
..BOTHWELL.. 05/07/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT E TODAY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS. AS THIS OCCURS...FALLING
HEIGHTS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING SWLY FLOW WITH A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK NEAR 50 KT EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. AT
THE SAME TIME...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A ROUGHLY
NE-SW ORIENTED DRYLINE FROM SE NEB/ERN KS SWWD INTO W-CNTRL TX.
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RH VALUES COUPLED WITH
VERY STRONG SFC WINDS /FURTHER REINFORCED BY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE PLAINS COURTESY OF STRENGTHENING ERN CO LEE LOW/
WILL LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA FOR: PARTS OF NE NM...FAR SE CO...PARTS
OF WRN KS...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND FAR NW OK...
THE MOST WORRISOME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS. HERE...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE 90S /EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF NE NM AND SE CO WHERE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE/. REGARDLESS OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING WILL OCCUR TO NEARLY 10-12
KFT. AS THIS OCCURS...RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
MIDDAY. FURTHERMORE...INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS WILL ALLOW FOR DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS FROM THE CORE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK OVERSPREADING THIS REGION. STRONG WINDS
WILL FURTHER BE REINFORCED BY THE NE-SW ORIENTED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX. EXPECT SWLY SFC
WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. GIVEN
SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT/DRY WEATHER...AND ONGOING LONG-TERM
DROUGHT...PRECONDITIONING OF FINE FUELS HAS OCCURRED AND VERY DRY 1-
AND 10-HR FUELS ARE WIDESPREAD. AS SUCH...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
...CRITICAL AREA FOR: EXTREME SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...SE CO INTO WRN
KS/OK/TX AND PARTS OF S-CENTRAL NEB...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A
LITTLE WEAKER OUTSIDE THE MAIN CORE OF THE MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND
RH VALUES NOT QUITE AS LOW. EXPECT CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO EXTEND
NEWD FROM SRN NM/W TX INTO S-CENTRAL NEB. HERE...TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND 90S ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING. AS
SUCH...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT BY LATE MORNING.
AS THIS OCCURS...SWLY SFC WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAR E THE SFC DRYLINE ADVANCES...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE CRITICAL MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS MORNING DURING
THE DAY 1 UPDATE DEPENDING ON LATEST MODEL DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. IT ALSO SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE /SEE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL/. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
INITIALLY POSE A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND PW VALUES RAPIDLY
INCREASING TO OVER 1 INCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A WETTER STORM MODE.
...ELEVATED AREA FOR: FAR ERN AZ EWD INTO SE NEB TO CENTRAL TX...
MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL ENCOMPASS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND
CRITICAL AREAS. RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10-20 PERCENT IN THIS AREA
WITH WIND SPEEDS FROM 15-25 MPH /WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS/. A
RATHER SHARP PROGRESSION FROM CRITICAL TO ELEVATED TO NON-CONCERNING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ON THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREAS...MAINLY FROM SE NEB SWD INTO NW TX.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...