Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue May 6 16:46:03 UTC 2014 (
| 
)
Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Tue May 6 16:46:03 UTC 2014 (
| )
|
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061644
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
INTO SCNTRL KS AND NW/NCNTRL OK...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SE
CO...PARTS OF WRN INTO SCNTRL KS...SW AND CENTRAL OK...W TX...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK WITH A SLIGHT
EXPANSION OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
ALSO...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT SOME CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON IN AND NEAR THE DRYLINE...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OK...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PTNS OF WRN N TX.
IF STORMS DO FORM...INITIALLY...THEY WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED
STORMS...WITH SOME LIGHTNING AND VERY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WHICH COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS ON ANY EXISTING FIRES.
...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SCNTRL KS AND NW/NCNTRL OK...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN AND NEAR THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA SHOW
THE SHALLOW MOISTURE HAS QUICKLY MIXED OUT WITH THE VERY DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW 90S AT MID-MORNING.
MODELS ARE ALSO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE STRONG SWLY WINDS SO HAVE
SLIGHTLY EXPANDED THE AREA TO THE NW AND MORE TO THE E IN SCNTRL KS
AND NCNTRL OK.
ALTHOUGH THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AT LEAST SOME OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY
RECOVERY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
...ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SE CO...PARTS OF WRN INTO SCNTRL KS...SW
AND CENTRAL OK...W TX...
VERY LITTLE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL AND ELEVATED
AREAS AT THIS TIME.
FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THE RAP MODEL IS DEFINITELY THE DRIEST MODEL
BY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM PREDICTING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE RAP PREDICTING DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 40S.
BASED ON THE RAP MODEL...HUMIDITY COULD DROP AT THE SURFACE INTO THE
TEENS THIS AFTERNOON IN CNTRL AND NCNTRL OKLAHOMA AND THIS ALONG
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF RECORD HIGHS CHARACTERISTIC OF SUMMER WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
...PTNS CNTRL/SWRN OK...PTNS WRN N TX...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF
STRONG/GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING MOISTURE AND THE POSITION OF THE
DRYLINE. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE MORNING MODEL RUNS...THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN AND NEAR THE DRYLINE THAT HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM IN THIS AREA BY MID AFTERNOON WITH PEAK
HEATING. GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE DIFFERENCES AT THE
SURFACE AND THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES... DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE AND AT LEAST INITIALLY... LIGHTNING WITH VERY LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE IS LIKELY.
IF STORMS DO FORM...AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD...THEY SHOULD MOVE INTO A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE WITH A BETTER CHANCE THE STORMS WOULD
EVENTUALLY PRODUCE MORE WETTING RAINS.
..BOTHWELL.. 05/06/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0258 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ATTENDANT TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY AND SHIFT E TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z/WED. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF AZ/NM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING
THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL FURTHER
AID IN DEVELOPING STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW INTO THE SRN
HIGH/GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW OVER ERN CO WILL ALLOW FOR
A STRONG NE-SW ORIENTED PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX. ADDITIONALLY...NEAR-RECORD HEAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...WITH EXTREMELY LOW RH
VALUES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY
FUELS WILL LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO PARTS OF SRN KS AND NW OK.
...THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO S-CENTRAL KS AND NW OK...
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY MIDDAY. A MIDLEVEL JET STREAK /NEAR 50 KT AT 700 MB/ ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING FROM MAIN TROUGH FURTHER TO THE
WEST IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SLOWLY LIFT NEWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO BY 00Z/WED. AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES...DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING TO NEARLY 13 KFT IS EXPECTED. NOT ONLY WILL THIS AID IN
DRYING BUT ALSO IN MIXING HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SFC. AS
SUCH...SWLY WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5-10
PERCENT /LOCALLY LOWER/. GIVEN THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE ACTED TO
PRECONDITION FINE FUELS...AND THE EXISTENCE OF LONG-TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...FUELS /ESPECIALLY 1-HR AND 10-HR FUELS/ REMAIN VERY DRY
DESPITE ONGOING GREEN-UP.
...ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...SE CO...PARTS OF WRN INTO S-CENTRAL KS...SW
AND CENTRAL OK...W TX...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...A LARGE AREA OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN SWLY SFC WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RH
VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 PERCENT WITH THE LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED
OVER ERN NM ACROSS WRN TX INTO WRN OK. SHOULD WIND SPEED GUIDANCE
TREND HIGHER...PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO
EXTREMELY CRITICAL LATER THIS MORNING.
...WRN AZ...SRN AND ERN UT...WRN CO INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA...CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE MARGINAL.
ACROSS WRN AZ INTO SRN AND ERN UT/WRN CO...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM
10-20 PERCENT WITH SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 MPH. UNFAVORABLE FUEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF UT INTO WRN CO WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE
THREAT. EWD INTO SE CO...KS...CENTRAL OK AND W TX...THE TRANSITION
FROM CRITICAL TO LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE FAIRLY ABRUPT
AND IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR E THE SFC DRYLINE PROGRESSES.
BUT...AT LEAST MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO CENTRAL OK SWWD
TOWARD THE TX BIG BEND. RH VALUES FROM 15-20 PERCENT AND WIND SPEEDS
FROM 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...