Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast (Print Version)

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Apr 26 08:44:04 UTC 2014 (

)

Risk	Area (sq. mi.)	Area Pop.	Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme	52,865	633,378	Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Guymon, OK...Dalhart, TX...Ft. Sumner, NM...
Critical	147,477	1,912,741	El Paso, TX...Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 260843 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL/NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF SRN CA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EMBEDDED LEE LOW CENTERED OVER E-CNTRL CO. AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SWD FROM SW NEB TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BEFORE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT OVERTAKES IT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROMOTING MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. SUSTAINED WIND SPEED AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM E-CNTRL NM NEWD INTO SE CO/SW KS. RECENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL POOR RH RECOVERY IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STILL IN THE MID 60S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. CONSEQUENTLY...RH VALUES WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF CRITICAL RH VALUES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL /IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S/. ALL THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS E-CNTRL/NERN NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...FAR SERN CO...AND FAR SWRN KS. IN THIS AREA RH VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER 30 MPH /GUSTS OVER 50 MPH/ AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS IN TANDEM WITH DRY FUELS AND AN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WILL RESULT IN AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH SOME ISOLATED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL TEMPER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE NM/AZ BORDER WHILE THE THREAT ACROSS AREAS IN SW NEB WILL BE MODERATED BY SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND SPEEDS. ..MOSIER.. 04/26/2014 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...