Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Apr 3 16:37:04 UTC 2014 (
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Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Apr 3 16:37:04 UTC 2014 (
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Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 031635
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014
VALID 031700Z - 041200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR TX S PLAINS....PERMIAN
BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR SERN NM...PORTIONS OF WRN AND
CNTRL TX...PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL OK...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND UPPER AIR DATA REVEAL A CLASSIC EARLY
SPRING SOUTHERN PLAINS FIRE WEATHER PATTERN. 16Z ANALYSIS PLACES A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SRN KS/MO BORDER WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD
FROM THIS LOW TO THE TX BIG BEND. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SWWD
FROM THIS LOW ACROSS CNTRL OK AND THEN WWD TO ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
OVER NERN NM. FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST BETWEEN THESE TWO
SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH VERY DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
SERN NM/FAR W TX NEWD THROUGH WRN N TX/CNTRL OK.
...TX S PLAINS...PERMIAN BASIN...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WAS REALIZED
ACROSS THIS AREA. RH VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE TEENS WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS
HEATING PROMOTES BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE
UPPER 70S...MIN RH VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR MUCH
OF AFTERNOON. UPPER/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 30 MPH. GUSTS OVER 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS...VERY DRY
CONDITIONS...VERY DRY FUELS...AND PROLONGED NATURE OF THE
THREAT...THIS AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL.
...FAR W TX/SERN NM NEWD INTO SW OK...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA REMAIN VALID WITH MIN RH
VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20-25 MPH
PROMOTING A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION
OF THE TRIPLE POINT /JUST N OF OKC/ AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE...TRIMMED OUT THE NERN PORTION OF
THE CRITICAL RISK AND THE NRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE ELEVATED RISK.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE
LIMITING FACTOR N AND W OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
..MOSIER.. 04/03/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0349 AM CDT THU APR 03 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING FROM THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS...WHILE A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL OK/TX. TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM SERN NM/W TX EWD INTO CNTRL OK/TX.
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND THE SRN PLAINS...
STRONG SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF
5-15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL/POST-DRYLINE REGIME FROM SERN NM/W TX EWD INTO CNTRL
OK/TX. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH EXTREMELY CRITICAL CRITERIA ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND W TX PLAINS...WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT WHILE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACH
30 MPH AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS.
ACROSS THE ELEVATED AREA...LIGHTER WINDS WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...