Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed May 23 16:37:02 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 231635
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012
VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A LARGE PART OF THE WRN
HALF OF NM...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF AZ/NM...PORTIONS OF
SRN UT/SWRN CO...FAR SWRN TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST AND MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE OF SRN CA...
...A LARGE PART OF THE WRN HALF OF NM...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...
THE ONLY CHANGES TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA WERE TO EXPAND THE
AREA SLIGHTLY WESTWARD ACROSS NERN AZ TOWARD THE CNTRL AND SERN EDGE
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE 16Z MESOWEST OBSERVATION FROM KINW /WINSLOW
AZ/ INDICATED THAT SITE WAS ALREADY HITTING EXTREMELY CRITICAL
CRITERIA WITH SWLY WINDS AT 30G40 MPH WITH AN RH VALUE OF 9 PERCENT.
...PORTIONS OF AZ/NM...PORTIONS OF SRN UT/SWRN CO...FAR SWRN TX...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
...PARTS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE OF SRN CA...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
...SURROUNDING THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS FROM PARTS OF SRN NV/SRN
CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED.
..LEITMAN.. 05/23/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0357 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING BELT OF STRONG/VERY STRONG FLOW
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS -- OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES --
WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES INTO
THE SW STATES AND SRN ROCKIES. AS THIS FLOW OVERLAYS DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SW STATES AND SRN ROCKIES...A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST...WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE WRN
HALF OF NM...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF ERN AZ. A SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SSEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES.
...A LARGE PART OF THE WRN HALF OF NM...PORTIONS OF ERN AZ...
AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN COORDINATED AND EXPANDED SWD
FROM THE INITIAL NERN-AZ/NWRN-NM AREA WITH THE
FLAGSTAFF...TUCSON...ALBUQUERQUE...AND EL PASO WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICES.
A 700-MB JET MAX WILL OVERLAY THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
40-50 MPH OF 700-500-MB FLOW CROSSING THE AREA WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING TROUGH. SFC TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO THE 80S WILL ALLOW MIXED LAYER HEIGHTS TO REACH AOA 7.5
KFT AGL. ACCORDING TO MULTI-DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODEL
CONSENSUS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MANIFESTED AT
THE SFC AS WSWLY TO WLY WINDS OF 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 45
MPH...PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONGER.
RELATIVELY LOW PW VALUES OF 0.25-0.30 INCH ARE EXPECTED -- I.E.
AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR -- CHARACTERIZING
THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY STRONG WINDS...VERY LOW RH...AND
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS...EXTREMELY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
VERTICAL MIXING IS SUPPRESSED...POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
...PORTIONS OF AZ/NM...PORTIONS OF SRN UT/SWRN CO...FAR SWRN TX...
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WITHIN THE CRITICAL AREA...WSWLY TO WLY
WINDS OF 20 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED AS THE BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYS THE REGION
DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH THIS REGION BEING REMOVED FROM
THE STRONGEST 700-MB WINDS /WHICH WILL OVERLAY THE EXTREMELY
CRITICAL AREA/...SFC WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS THOSE
ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. REGARDLESS...HIGH-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE IN MANY
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA...RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-14 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
TO 80S NORTH...TO THE 90S TO AROUND 103 F SOUTH. ALSO OF NOTE...POOR
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF AZ/NM AND FAR SWRN TX.
...PARTS OF THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE OF SRN CA...
A CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED UPON COORDINATION WITH THE
OXNARD WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE. THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND
RELATIVELY HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT NLY
WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW THE
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL
AID IN GENERATING RH VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TEENS. SOME INSTANCES OF
LOWER RH VALUES MAY OCCUR...THOUGH NOT ON ANY MORE THAN A
SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF A DRIER AIR MASS. THESE FACTORS
WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT...AS RH VALUES REMAIN LOW
AND WINDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FUELS SUPPORT A
CRITICAL DESIGNATION PER THE AFOREMENTIONED COORDINATION.
...SURROUNDING THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS FROM PARTS OF SRN NV/SRN
CA/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
BETWEEN THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NV/SRN CA/LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY: RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 8-13 PERCENT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S. AND...WITH SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO LOCALLY/BRIEFLY 20 MPH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE OF CONCERN. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA BEING
REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK
HEATING...CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE WESTERN CRITICAL AREA WHERE
STRONG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY...THOUGH UNFAVORABLE FUELS EXIST
THAT SHOULD MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT UPON COORDINATION WITH
THE OXNARD WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE.
TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL UT
INTO W-CNTRL/CNTRL CO: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AS LOCALLY STRONG WLY TO WNWLY SFC WINDS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...WITH THIS REGION BEING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PREVENT RH
VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.
TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS: RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH THE
LOWEST READINGS -- FROM 7 TO 12 PERCENT -- ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEST OF A N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE. COINCIDING
WITH THESE RH VALUES...WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...BUT WOULD GENERALLY DO SO ON MORE OF A
MARGINAL/SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MANY LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.
ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS ERN NM INTO PARTS OF SWRN TX EAST OF
THE CRITICAL AREA...WHERE STRONG WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS AND AREAS OF FUEL GREEN-UP THAT MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT PRECLUDE EWD-EXTENSION OF THE CRITICAL AREA AT THIS
TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...