Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Mar 26 16:48:03 UTC 2012
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 261647 DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012 VALID 261700Z - 271200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT... ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXTENDED EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA SLIGHTLY EWD ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND CRITICAL AREA EWD INTO CNTRL NEB AND SWRN ND. ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED DRY TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE BELOW. ...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE... OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SUSTAINED 30-40 MPH SW WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY DRY AIR MASS AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FRONT RIDGE COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S AND SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT /FROM SWLY TO WLY/. THE MOST PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT WILL BE IN NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 MPH AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK EWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NEB PANHANDLE... WIND SPEEDS AND GUST INTENSITY/FREQUENCY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ...ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT... EXPANDED THE CRITICAL RISK EWD ACROSS NEB AND NEWD ACROSS SWRN ND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS EXPECTED TO LINGER PAST SUNSET. ALSO EXPANDED NWWD ACROSS NERN WY WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL RISK AREA UNCHANGED AS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADDITIONALLY...SOME DRY TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING /DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW/. ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC... NO CHANGES NEEDED IN THIS AREA AS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ACCURATE. STRONG NWLY WINDS /AROUND 20 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPERATURES AOB 50F OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT LOW...DESPITE RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT AND ABUNDANT DRY FUELS. FARTHER S...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S AND 60S AND RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT COMBINE WITH 15-20 MPH NWLY WINDS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW /TUE/...LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS /DISCUSSED IN THE DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK/. ...DRY TSTM POTENTIAL... RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS THIS EVENING. STRONG FORCING ALONG THIS COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY ABOVE 700 MB MAY RESULT IN A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. DRY LOWER LEVELS AND FAST STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN LITTLE /IF ANY/ PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SFC WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CRITICAL AREA -- I.E. NEB PANHANDLE EWD INTO CNTRL NEB AND SWRN SD. ..MOSIER.. 03/26/2012 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2012/ ...SYNOPSIS... THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER FEATURE IS AN UPPER LOW /EVIDENT ON 06Z WV IMAGERY OVER SRN CA/ THAT WILL QUICKLY EJECT NEWD...CROSSING THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY EVENING AND REACHING ND LATE IN THE PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE CRITICAL/EXTREME AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT. MEANWHILE...A COOL AND DRY POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...WITH WIND SPEEDS PARTICULARLY STRONGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. ...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SERN WY AND WRN NEB PANHANDLE... SLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN LATE THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPACT UPPER WAVE...AND AS THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION BEGINS TO ERODE...ALLOWING STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH /ISOLATED GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH/ WILL BECOME LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO WLY AND REMAINING STRONG OVER WY/CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA BY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SPEEDS MAY REMAIN STRONG /WLY AOA 20 MPH/ OVER ERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH INITIAL CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL HEATING...SLY WINDS AND THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. POST-FRONTAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER IN A DOWNSLOPE REGIME...WITH ONLY MODEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY TEMPER THE THREAT. ...ERN NM NWD INTO SERN MT... TO THE NORTH OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL DELINEATION...WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF WY...WITH LOWER SPEEDS INTO MT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL...THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STRONG SWLYS SHIFTING TO WLY WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE CRITICAL WAS EXPANDED WWD INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL WY. TO THE EAST...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL...BUT WITH STRONG SLY WINDS NOT SHIFTING TO WLY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ON THE NRN FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND/OR DRYLINE/COLD FRONTAL MERGER OVER FAR ERN CO...WRN KS...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND SWRN SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...SHOULD CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BE OVERCOME. FARTHER S...STRONG WSWLYS WILL SUPPORT A HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER THREAT...WITH FORECAST WINDS SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. POOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC... DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS A BROAD AREA FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND WITH REINFORCING NWLY FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONGER TO THE NORTH...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 70 F OVER THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC MAY SUPPORT A BRIEFLY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY LEAD TO FALLING TEMPERATURES BY LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER N...STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ONLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH 50S ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST AND AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT...THE COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A HIGHLIGHTED AREA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...