Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Mar 18 16:45:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 181639
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012
VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NEB PANHANDLE...FAR SWRN
SD...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE TX
TRANS-PECOS...
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...CNTRL SD/NEB...
VERY STRONG SLY WINDS /SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH/ SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP
BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 60 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF ERN CO. ONGOING EXTREMELY CRITICAL
DELINEATION REMAINS LARGELY IN TACT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EXPANSION
NWD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF FAR SWRN SD. MORNING SFC OBS REFLECT A
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ALREADY IN PLACE...AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO
NEAR RECORD HIGHS ONCE AGAIN...MIN RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO NEAR 10
PERCENT. DRY FUEL CONDITIONS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERY WARM/DRY
AIR MASS AND STRONG WINDS TO CREATE AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT
OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE AND FAR SWRN SD...WHILE SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE FUEL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WILL FAVOR A HIGH-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS...TX TRANS-PECOS...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS EXTENSIVE CIRRUS PLUME
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF ERN NM AHEAD OF A STRONG WRN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH. MOIST CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT THE SFC AT 16Z...BUT MOST
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID EWD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE TO
NEAR I-27 IN W TX BY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG WINDS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY TO MATERIALIZE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. REGIONAL
VWP DATA INDICATE 30-40 KTS OF S-SWLY FLOW IS PRESENT JUST ABOVE THE
SFC...AND SHOULD BE MANIFESTED AT THE SFC BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS. WITH
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS LIKELY INHIBITING HEATING SOMEWHAT...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MIN RH VALUES AOA 10 PERCENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. NONETHELESS...WITH VERY STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND DRY FUELS/ONGOING DROUGHT FOCUSED OVER
SERN NM...FAR W TX...AND PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN/TX S
PLAINS...A HIGH-END CRITICAL THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE.
..ROGERS.. 03/18/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN W BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LOCATED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN CA WILL EJECT INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG S-SWLY
MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH A SHARP LEE TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD INTO ERN NM AND W TX.
...HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A
DRYLINE RETREATING WWD INTO ERN NM...FAR WRN KS AND WRN NEB.
HOWEVER...THE MOIST LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH
WILL FAVOR RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS DEEP LAYER S-SWLYS
INTENSIFY BY LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT...THE DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE
EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON TOWARD A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY CNTRL SD/NEB
SWD INTO WRN KS...THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE ARE FORECAST TO WARM
INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND WILL AID IN MIN RH VALUES FROM 10-15
PERCENT.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING
OF MIDLEVEL S-SWLYS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH 700 MB SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 40-60 KT. THOUGH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH
WILL FAVOR HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CIRRUS MAY RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT FULL SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR THIS REASON...A LARGE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
DELINEATION WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED ATTM. HOWEVER...AN EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN MADE FOR THE NEB PANHANDLE...WHERE LOCALLY VERY DRY FUEL
CONDITIONS RESIDE...AND WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
LOW TEENS AND SUSTAINED SLY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...