Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Thu Mar 1 09:27:03 UTC 2012
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010926
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CST THU MAR 01 2012
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SERN NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM...W TX...SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL PROGRESS EWD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ADVANCING FROM THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. INCREASING MIDLEVEL FLOW
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.
...NM...W TX...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PW VALUES
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 0.1 - 0.2 INCH RANGE. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OF 8-12
PERCENT WILL RESULT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF NM INTO W TX AND THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 35-45
MPH DURING THE DAY ON THU IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES EWD...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NM...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 50 MPH IN THE 02/00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RH
VALUES FALLING BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THIS AREA...AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PARTS OF SERN NM.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE NERN PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA OVER THE TX PANHANDLE...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO AN ELONGATED SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT. PARTS OF WRN OK WERE DROPPED FROM THE CRITICAL
AREA...WHERE SOME BACKING AND WEAKENING OF FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THIS
LOW IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL/ERN OK...SRN/ERN KS...WRN MO...WRN AR...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW...A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG S-SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM CNTRL
OK/S-CNTRL KS EWD TOWARDS WRN MO/AR...WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 60S N TO 70S S/ WILL YIELD RH VALUES IN THE
LOWER-MID 20S. WITH MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...AND RECENT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...A CRITICAL
UPGRADE WILL NOT BE MADE ATTM. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
..DEAN.. 03/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...