Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Nov 2 07:29:02 UTC 2011
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 020728
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED NOV 02 2011
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...CANYONS AND PASSES OF COASTAL SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...CANYONS
AND PASSES OF COASTAL SRN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SRN CA/WRN
AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT BUT COMPACT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
SHIFT EWD IN CONCERT WITH A DETACHED UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...EXTENDING FROM THE HUDSON BAY SWWD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE THE SRN LOW REACHES THE MID MS VALLEY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST...WITH ANOTHER POWERFUL TROUGH IMPACTING THE WEST COAST OVER
NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER SRN CA
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING THEREAFTER
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE CNTRL STATES. STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO RELAX AS THIS OCCURS.
MEANWHILE...THE COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL INTENSIFY AN EWD/SWD
MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE
OF COLDER AIR PUSHING SWD INTO TX THIS EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS...WITH AN ELEVATED
FIRE THREAT POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER PORTIONS OF SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX.
...MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...CANYONS AND PASSES OF COASTAL SRN CA...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT BEGINNING
EARLY THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TODAY. 07Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW NELY
WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH STRONGER GUSTS REPORTED NEAR THE CAJON
PASS...AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 TO 35 MPH AT RIVERSIDE AND CORONA
AIRPORT. MEANWHILE...SINGLE DIGIT TO TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SAN
GABRIEL AND SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. SINGLE DIGIT AND TEEN RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS DESERT LOCATIONS ON THE LEE OF THE
SRN CA MOUNTAIN RANGES...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
SWWD IN A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE REGIME. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PLUMMET AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL HEATING IN
COMBINATION WITH ADIABATIC/DOWNSLOPE WARMING CONTINUES TO ERODE THE
MARINE LAYER. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DEVELOPING WSWWD TO
THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. REGARDING WINDS...THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE
AN OUTLIER IN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS...THOUGH THE MOST
RECENT EURO HAS COME CLOSER INTO LINE WITH THE STRONGER SOLUTION. AS
SUCH...CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER VALLEYS...WHILE
MOUNTAINS...FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS CAN EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MAY STILL SUPPORT A LOWER-END CRITICAL THREAT.
SURROUNDING THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL INCLUDING THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT. POOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE COAST.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SRN CA/WRN AZ...
AS OF 06Z...NLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY AS A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
SWD...EVIDENCED BY RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE DATA FROM LAS VEGAS.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING
THEREAFTER. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY RECOVER THIS MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY PLUMMETING ONCE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE GIVEN A DRIER AIR MASS.
...SERN NM...SW TX/TRANS-PECOS...
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SWD THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL WLY WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NWLY AND STRENGTHEN AS THE PRIMARY
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH AND
STRONGER GUSTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NLY BY EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN
STRONG AS THE SECONDARY FRONT PROGRESSES SWD. UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
TO EXIST REGARDING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WITH THE GFS
STILL APPEARING TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
USING A COOLER SOLUTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME...YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BRIEFLY FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT GIVEN AN
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH-END SEE TEXT TO
BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...WITH THE DURATION NOT EXPECTED TO MEET
THE 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT FOR A CRITICAL DELINEATION. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE SHOULD WARMER
TEMPERATURES BECOME EVIDENT.
..HURLBUT.. 11/02/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...