Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Wed Jun 29 11:32:06 UTC 2011
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 290846
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF SRN NV...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/ERN NV...NRN AZ...SRN UT...FAR
WRN CO/NWRN NM/SERN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED JUST W
OF THE GOLDEN GATE IN CNTRL CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU. PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT
RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL NV WILL
ACCELERATE EWD DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
...SRN/ERN NV...NWRN/N-CNTRL AZ...SWRN UT...FAR SERN CA...
INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ALONG THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 700 MB
FLOW OF 40 TO 55 MPH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER ERN NV INTO WRN
UT...AIDING IN SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40S/50S. THESE WINDS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH A WARM/DRY AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT /CHARACTERIZED BY RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15
PERCENT/...YIELDING A HIGHER-END CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL
THREAT.
...NERN AZ...ERN UT...FAR WRN CO/NWRN NM...
A DUAL CRITICAL THREAT IS EXPECTED FROM DRY TSTMS AND STRONG
WINDS/LOW RH. ALTHOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
INTENSE AS FARTHER WEST...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 103 WILL RESULT IN LOW RH VALUES OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT.
GPS PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH WERE SAMPLED ACROSS SRN AZ THIS
MORNING...WITH THIS PLUME OF RICHER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED N/NEWD
THROUGH THE DAY. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS PLUME...INCREASING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH
RAPID N/NELY STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO
PERHAPS NUMEROUS DRY TSTMS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NWD ALONG THE UT/CO
BORDER.
...CNTRL/ERN NM...TX/WRN OK PANHANDLE...
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL WEAKENING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TODAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS LARGELY
AVERAGING FROM 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WITH
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINING CONFINED WELL WEST OF THE
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS WILL
BE LIMITED. NEVERTHELESS...HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 105
WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT OVER CNTRL NM TO 5 TO
10 PERCENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD YIELD ELEVATED TO
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXTEND NEWD ACROSS SWRN KS...THE ERN
PANHANDLE/WRN OK. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL /AOA A HALF
INCH IN MOST LOCALES/ FROM TUE EVENING THROUGH THIS MORNING SHOULD
FURTHER MARGINALIZE ANY THREAT TODAY.
..GRAMS.. 06/29/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...