Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sun Jun 19 07:13:03 UTC 2011
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 190712
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...MUCH OF
NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR SWRN KS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AZ...NM...SERN UT...SRN CO...SWRN
KS...WRN OK...W AND W-CNTRL TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WRN CONUS AS
AN ATTENDANT MID/UPPER JET NOSES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. A SFC CYCLONE
WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AND WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW STRETCHING FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THE SFC LOW WILL BECOME
POSITIONED OVER W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.
...SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT MAY UNFOLD OVER ERN
AZ...NM...AND PORTIONS OF W TX. BACKGROUND CONDITIONS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SPREAD OF NEW AND EXISTING FIRES GIVEN ONGOING
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HEAT /MAX TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 100-110 DEG F/ IS FORECAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN
NM AND W TX...AND WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO 3-5 PERCENT IN
MANY LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT FARTHER W OVER
AZ/NM /90S-LOW 100S OVER THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS/...BUT WITH A
PERSISTENT DRY AIR MASS REMAINING FIXED OVER THE REGION SINGLE DIGIT
RH VALUES STILL APPEAR PROBABLE TO DEVELOP. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WRN CONUS
UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE FIRST
OVER ERN AZ/NM TO 30-40 MPH BY LATE MORNING /WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
50-55 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS/...AND EVENTUALLY OVER ERN NM AND W TX
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE HIGHER /LOWER-MID TEENS/ OVER
CNTRL/WRN AZ INTO SERN UT AND CO WITH COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH AND STILL FAVOR A CRITICAL
/LOCALLY HIGH-END/ FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
OVER W-CNTRL TX AND WRN OK...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POSITIONED OVER FAR WRN OK SWD THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. DESPITE
SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE...INTENSE SFC
HEATING /TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 100 DEG F/ WILL STILL YIELD RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 MPH IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND WITH BACKGROUND CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD GIVEN ONGOING EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR NEAR THE DRYLINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY DEEP/DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE SPARSE...WHICH WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING-STARTED FIRES AND STRONG/ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS.
...S...CNTRL...AND E TX...CNTRL OK...
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF
TX/OK AS A SFC COLD FRONT BECOMES POSITIONED ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS. VERY STRONG SFC HEATING /UPPER 90S-100S/ SHOULD FAVOR RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER-UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY
LOW RH VALUES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..ROGERS.. 06/19/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...