Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon May 30 06:10:03 UTC 2011
Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 300608
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN KS...FAR SERN
CO...FAR NERN NM...NRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...ERN/CNTRL NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A NEGATIVELY TITLED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED 60-80 KT 500
MB JET AXIS WILL BECOME POSITIONED FROM NERN NM N-NEWD ACROSS NEB
AND THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL LIFT NEWD OUT OF ERN CO AND ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM THE
LOW...AND IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD TOWARD A DRYLINE POSITIONED
OVER SWRN KS-WRN TX BY EARLY EVENING.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...ERN/CNTRL NM...
A ZONE OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL SWLYS /AROUND 40 KT AT 700 MB/ IS
FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIONED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM...THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS DURING PEAK HEATING. THE FLOW ALOFT COMBINED
WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS
FROM 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
/TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S/ ALONG AND W OF THE DRYLINE...ALONG
WITH A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WITH MIN RH VALUES AOB 10 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS/LOW RH AND ONGOING DROUGHT/DRY FUELS WILL FAVOR AN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
OVER THE REMAINDER OF W TX AND ERN/CNTRL NM...THE NWD DISPLACEMENT
OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS /GENERALLY 20-30 MPH/. GIVEN
MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT AND VERY DRY FUELS...CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
...NWRN KS...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...
A DRYSLOT IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN CO...NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB. AS THIS OCCURS...RH
VALUES SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE
WIND SPEEDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20-35 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS MAY MITIGATE THAT
THREAT...WHICH PRECLUDES AN UPGRADE ATTM.
..GARNER.. 05/30/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...