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FNUS21 KWNS 091620
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2011
VALID 091700Z - 101200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/CNTRL/ERN NM...WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES...SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN TX/NM...ERN CO...WRN
OK...WRN/CNTRL KS...SWRN NEB...SERN AZ...
...SOUTHWEST TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
FIRST WAS A NWD EXTENSION OF THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA INTO SERN
CO...WHERE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID STRENGTHENING
OF SUSTAINED S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS UP TO 40 MPH BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THE ERN EXTENT OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER OK AND KS. LATEST NAM AND RUC
SUGGEST SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AND SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WILL
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF CNTRL KS...SO THE CRITICAL WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. OVER WRN/CNTRL OK...CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES MAY NOT
DEVELOP AS FAR E AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO THE CRITICAL WAS
MOVED WWD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.
...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN FL...
NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/S-CNTRL TX AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S. THIS DRYNESS COMBINED WITH
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND MINIMAL RAINFALL DURING THE
PAST WEEK OR TWO /ONGOING DROUGHT/ MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED OR LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 05/09/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0220 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2011/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL
DEVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES BY EARLY TUE. THE LEAD
IMPULSE WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND CNTRL ROCKIES
REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE SECONDARY IMPULSE DROPS SWD
ACROSS CA. A BELT OF STRONG TO INTENSE MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL BISECT
AZ ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER NERN CO WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
ARCING EWD ACROSS NEB. DRYLINE WILL MIX ACROSS CNTRL KS AND WRN OK
TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IN TX...WHILE A PACIFIC COLD FRONT REACHES
CNTRL CO INTO NWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON.
...SOUTHWEST TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
WITH POOR RH RECOVERY ONGOING ALONG THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL
REDEVELOP DURING MID/LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING ENSUES AND LOW
RH AOB 15 PERCENT BECOMES JUXTAPOSED WITH WINDS AOA 20 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND EWD INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK/TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HOT TEMPERATURES /FROM THE
MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 107/ EXPECTED AGAIN ACROSS ERN NM...WRN
TX/OK/KS...EXTREMELY LOW RH VALUES OF 1 TO 5 PERCENT WILL PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
THE MOST EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
WRN EXTENT OF THIS VERY DRY/HOT AIR MASS AS AN AXIS OF STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS OVERSPREADS NM AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
HERE...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE
40S/50S WILL BECOME COMMON. HIGHER-END TO LOCALIZED EXTREMELY
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE PRONOUNCED ALONG AND E OF THE
I-25/S OF THE I-70 CORRIDORS IN CO/WRN KS...SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO
NWRN TX WITH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50
MPH.
...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN FL...
NAM/RR GUIDANCE APPEARS TO REASONABLY DEPICT THE AXIS OF LOW RH
BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SRN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...LOW RH
VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT OWING TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING...CURTAILING A MORE ROBUST THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...